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Projections workgroup for the 2022 Platform

Contents [hide]

2022 Emissions Modeling Platform Wiki Main Page

Projections Workgroup Charter

Workgroup Roster

Control Data Request

Control Data for state and local regulations and regarding state-specific implementation of non-EGU federal regulations are requested by July 19, 2024 to support the preparation of 2026, 2032, and 2038 analytic year inventories for review in September 2024

June 18 Presentation

June 18 Recording

Control Data Request Instruction sheet

Control data template spreadsheet

Task Force Wikis

The projections workgroup organized into task forces to review the projection methods and data for different inventory sectors. Notes and work products for the task forces are available in the following wikis.

Resources

Project Methods by Sector Document

2016v3 TSD (analytic years); includes SMOKE projection packets by sector/SCC

2016v1 specification sheets

2019 TSD (most recent interim year)

US EPA Emissions Trends

Projections Workgroup Meetings

Workgroup coordinators: Zac Adelman and Alison Eyth

July 10, 2024

Next scheduled meeting is on July 10.

June 5, 2024

Projection Task Force Updates

EGU

  • New IPM run will incorporate all new rules
  • Looking at changes to future year emissions with EV penetration rates

Non-EGU point

  • Reviewing growth factors and looking at the inventory for criteria pollutants to prioritize sectors with the biggest sources
  • Looking at AEO tables for growth by NAICS and SCC to see what the underlying projection data look like and if there are places where AEO may not be the best to use
  • Also looked at past projections compared to actuals
  • Trying to get recommendations that are acceptable for the 2022v1 platform; next step will be to identify where to focus efforts for the v2 platform

Nonpoint

  • Reviewing alternative projection methods by EPA, MARAMA, and NC; a lot of work because over 100 SCCs in the non point category
  • Aggregated to 14 EIS sectors for summarizing the alternative projection methods
  • Will review the methods in the task force on the next call
  • Looking at what’s been done in the past for projection factors rather than trying to compare projections with historical trajectories

Onroad/Nonroad

  • No AEO data for 2024, trying to figure out what EPA will do for onroad projections
  • EPA is working on extracting data for EV penetration rates
  • Will states be able to provide VMT projections?
    • Some states would like to
    • Zac noted that MPOs likely have VMT projections for conformity
    • EPA needs to discuss at their next meeting
    • GA requested that they have the ability to review/comment on EPA's VMT projection methods

MAR

  • Working on gap-filling for CMV base year, not working on analytic year yet
  • Using TAF projections for aircraft
  • Looking at freight analysis framework (by state) for rail; trying to figure out how to use it nationally
  • Atlanta airport is going to provide projected emissions to the platform
  • Zac noted that this sector is relatively important for NOx now that onroad emissions have decreased

Oil & Gas

  • Have been meeting in national oil and gas committee; a new targeted projections task force committee meeting tomorrow
  • Point and non point production, and exploration are areas of focus
  • Looking at default approaches, along with low-effort vs high-effort alternatives
  • Trying to build a reasonably conservative default approach
  • Also looking at control programs and how to integrate
  • Many groups are finding that they’ll not be able to wrap up their analysis to have an impact on v1 but could have data to influence v2

Action Items

  • All workgroup members: review the control information instructions and control data template; send comments to Rhonda, Mary, and Alison by June 11
  • Rhonda, Mary, Alison: finalize instructions and template for the June 18 presentation
  • Rhonda: post all files to the wiki (instructions, template, and slides) and finalize the slide deck for the June 18 presentation Notes

Next Call: July 10 @ 4 Eastern

May 1, 2024

Agenda

  • Task force updates: lightning summaries (1-2 min), what are you currently working on and what is your #1 challenge
  • Projection workgroup schedule review (see WG charter)
  • Re-center workgroup priorities and schedule for input to EPA

General Notes

  • Judy asked about the need to review the 2022 data relative to 2020, were we going to review the draft 2022v1 data? Discussion around doing these reviews within our states/regions and communicating back to the larger group (coordination committee?) about issues we find
  • Timeline? Need to get input to EPA on projections by the end of June
  • Gil noted that on the comment tool and Sharepoint, that some of the comments were addressed immediately, while others are still pending; can edit comments after the initial submittal
  • Mary: reminder that one major goal is to improve the emissions inventory, current approach is to have states focus on updates; with the national maps can see discontinuities for some sectors where there is a difference in the amount of effort expended between states, e.g., RWC; different states are prioritizing sectors, and some states don't have the same focus
  • For states that are adding value to 2022 data, we need to communicate that those data should be the basis for projections; e.g., for states that didn't submit data for 2022 they don't have a good basis for moving away from the default

Task force updates

  • EGUs
    • Reconciling lat lon differences between ERTAC and IPM; challenged by representing the good neighbor plan in future years; EPA has included final rules in their runs, ERTAC trying to figure out how to do this in ERTAC; EPA is trying to minimize the differences in the input data between ERTAC and IPM, Good Neighbor is complicated because of the legal actions; trying to figure out how to use the non-EGU CEMs data and how they map to EIS
  • NonEGUs
    • Looking at actual emissions with past projection methods
    • Struggling to prioritize which sources to focus on for reviews/updates
    • Hard to quantify controls with all the new rules; need to capture the controls over the years
  • Nonpoint
    • Not looking back at past emissions because the projection methods have changed over time
    • Looking at projection methods across the country: EPA, MARAMA, and North Carolina and creating cross-walks to compare the methods and data
    • Plan is to update growth indicator cross walk and review the comparisons with the group
    • Challenge is going to be finding consensus for recommendations for the sectors; need to define a default approach, and then let states replace/layer additional information if they have
  • Onroad
    • Working to figure out how to update age distributions in analytic years; goal is to start the MOVES runs in June
    • Typically use AEO based factors to project VMT; new rules will impacts 2032 and 2038 years
    • EPA will create a MOVES4+ for this application, not part of an officieal release
    • For nonroad will use MOVES4 to run later years, no plans to make other updates
  • MAR
    • Still working on tracking each sectors projection data
    • EPA could create draft factors for airports for the group to review
    • Seeking ideas to improve rail projections
    • Challenged by assuming the future year rail fleet mix
    • For marine OTAQ help create projection factors
  • Oil and Gas
    • Collecting ideas for projections, will likely start with the AEO 2023
    • For exploration will use average historical data to develop a projection trajectory
    • Pipeline transmission is fairly flat
    • trying to figure out how to identify and incorporate rules, state and national, to the platform; including good neighbor FIP for compressors
    • Tom notes granularity in how different states report and develop emissions

  • What Can this Workgroup Deliver
    • Alison: likes the subgrouping suggestions for nonpoint
    • Goal for nonpoint is to provide EPA witih a consensus approach for default approach for SCCs; not planning on creating control recommendations for nonpoint
    • For controls, need to do outreach to states and ask them to provide control factors; e.g, northeast had a lot of rules that need to be communicated to EPA; EPA can't just get a regulation, they need control factors
    • Create a communication for outreach on controls: what do we need to get from states?
    • Do we also want to communicate that federal and state factors will be blended
    • If EPA could provide the CoST structure in a file template for receiving data; and also ask for point source shut downs; needed data on growth, control and shutdown
    • Zac and Susan can work with Alison on spreadsheet templates and messages for the comms; data need to be relative to 2022
    • Judy to provide a slide on what we're asking for

April 3, 2024

Today we received updates from the various task forces.

EGU (Susan and Alison)

  • Reviewed recent ERTAC base and future years, received feedback from states
  • Will do another two runs: 1) good neighbor FIP compliance scenario; 2) changes to implement regardless of the FIP
  • EPA ERTAC coordination: identifying source ID and location differences between IPM and ERTAC, try to make the platforms more consistent
  • EPA IPM: plans for summer 2024 EGU modeling including analytics year 2026, 2032, and 2038; 2026 will use the most recent data available, e.g., engineering/analytics approach like Good Neighbor modelign; 2032 and 2038 will include IRA and final Good Neighbor Plan; will also get an updated baseline for OTAQ vehicle rules, MATS, 111, and effluent limitations guidelines
  • OAQPS is coordinating with CAMD to get the flat files together for 2026, 2032, and 2038

Non-EGU point (Rhonda and Zac)

  • No updates

Nonpoint (Andy and Lindsay)

  • Starting with 2016 SCCs, and came up with a draft cross walk for growth indicators/assumptions by SCC
  • MARAMA and EPA will review the assumptions and propose adjustments/alternatives
  • Next call will review alternatives and come up with proposed approaches for each SCC

Onroad/nonroad (Janice and Farren)

  • Have not met in March, no updates
  • Analytic years, likely to use projection factors based on AEO
  • Talking about growth indicators, need to think about controls/emissions reductions, like locomotives
  • EPA in discussions with OTAQ to develop factors for the new onroad rules for use in the 2022v1 platform; they would be used a post-process for the MOVES runs

General projection issues

  • Fire discussion
    • Wildfires will be held constant
    • Judy (NJ) noted that they may increase through a projection factor prescribed fires in the future; no definitive method now
    • NC used a 10 year average for their GHG inventory for wild and prescribed fires;
  • 2022 was selected because it was lower/below average fire year
  • Typical year (10 year average fires), EPA method for typical fires scrapped because the typical year fires were inconsitent with the actual year methodology
  • Are the 2022 facility data available in the online data review tool? A: Yes.
    • Some data were missing for a couple of refineries in TX

Marine/air/rail (Janice and Mark)

  • Draft C1C2/C3 emissions are at EPA and being reviewed; expect there will be gridded emissions to review/share; AEO for projecting emissions
  • Estimated emissions for the 50 largest airports and projected emissions for the rest; Projections will use terminal area forecasts (TAF) from FAA
  • Rail adjusting 2020 to 2022; will be the last sector to finalize; wanted to include an updated fleet mix

Oil and gas

  • US EPA is meeting with economists and policy advisors about how to estimate impacts of NSPS and new methane rule in future year inventories
  • ERG collecting activity data for exploration to figure out how to project the activity for future years; reviewing previous/conventional approaches by SCC groups and thinking through alternatives

Items for next call

  • Need bullets for 2-4 Eastern call on May 1

March 6, 2024

Today give a round robin of updates from the various task forces. February call was canceled.

EGU (Susan and Alison)

  • Working to reconcile unit location information and the same set of hourly data
  • ERTAC data gathering is in progress for new version to generate the analytic year data
  • They are thinking about comparing 2023 projection from 2016 platform to actual 2023 data
  • Looking at some units from 2016 projection vs actual data
  • Andy: status of analytic years? A: they did do a draft based on 2016 but will be circling back once the data gathering is complete
  • IPM – we are thinking about how to develop analytic year emissions but haven’t taken steps to develop emissions yet

Non-EGU point (Rhonda and Zac)

  • At yesterday’s meeting, a spreadsheet was reviewed to help review the actual emissions compared to the projected 2023 emissions to help evaluate methods by state - most are within 20%
  • Will soon add the available 2022 data but trying to determine how to use the information to refine methods
  • There is a mapping that EPA used between NAICS & SCC codes to AEO-based factors
  • Spreadsheets have multiple years of data including 2022
  • There is a lot of data – sometimes projections look good for one state but not another
  • Consider looking at sectors with largest discrepancy of actual vs projection
  •        What will we do if/where we find big differences?

Nonpoint (Andy and Lindsay)

  • Worked to finalize the plans for the 2020->2022 projections and will post soon
  • For recently used projections, will review the growth indicators by SCC
  • Might have a call late March or early April
  • NJ had an approach similar to MARAMA but had a few exceptions – Andy to follow up
  • These sectors are on the same timeline as other sectors

Onroad/nonroad (Janice and Farren)

  • We are working to finalize base year emissions – should have emissions before next MJO MOVES meeting March 21
  • Received activity data form many of the states
  • Upcoming rules are not in MOVES4
  • There will be improvements to 2022 VPOP for v2
  • Will need to consider growth in EVs for analytic years [and for v2]

General projection issues

  • IRA is providing a lot of funding opportunities – e.g., CPRG – how can we incorporate those into the platform? A: we will try to quantify but it will take some time – likely not to impact v1.
  • Ports is a sector that might be impacted. Gil notes that not all of these are enforceable. Implementation grants need to provide estimated impacts in their 1 yr progress reports.
  • Keep in mind that many regs are being finalized this calendar year (across many sectors) – we’ll need to consider how to handle rules that are litigated and how to have multiple options
  • There could be some additional information on activity data that comes in through this process

Marine/air/rail (Janice and Mark)

  • Alison gave presentation on 2021 CMV on MARAMA CMV call and some were shown at MAR call
  • EPA is working on 2022 CMV inventory – going to be tight to finish by April 1
  • OTAQ may have some suggestions for analytic years
  • Airports: contractor ran AEDT for 51 airports and we are reviewing the data are comparing to 2020. Projection factors will be developed for the rest of the airports (new TAF was released).
  • Rail: still waiting on the updated fleet mix data – should be available later this month (hopefully by April 1) – will need to revisit the projections approach; may reach out to industry
  •        Next call is March 28 @ 3 Eastern
  •        Are there ongoing aircraft regs impacting analytic years? A: no

Oil and gas

  • EPA is working on the 2022 emissions now; abandoned wells are computed outside of the O&G tool; there are unplugged well counts that are updated with some frequency
  • Tom R – there are point and nonpoint projections to be addressed – exploration and production
  • SCCs are mapped to oil, gas, or both – with separate factors for exploration and production
  • Some activity data (well counts) are pulled forward instead of growing.
  • The new OOOOc will impact 2032 and we need to work together to quantify these

Big picture

  • What if we see a divergence between projection trajectory and actuals?
  • Maybe there could be some review of VMT forecasts? Some were done pre-COVID

Items for next call

  • Tom is interested to understand more about plans for modeling (met, AQ, BC) . A: there is a plan to discuss these on the May 1 quarterly call
  • Zac asks others to share analyses as appropriate.

January 3, 2024

Round robin of updates from the various task forces.

EGU

  • Susan summarized December meetings: a number of topics were discussed, see notes on the Wiki
  • The EGU task force is merged with the national EGU workgroup
  • EPA will add an output to CEMConvert to assist ERTAC modelers

Non-EGU point

  • Judy Rand provided a write up that EPA is reviewing and will be distributed to Collaborative and MJO directors
  • Still working to finalize approach of projecting 2020->2022
  • For states that submit a ‘full inventory’ for 2022 and do not want emissions carried forward, they need to interface with EPA on this
  • Need to have a section in the NEI newsletter to let people know how the 2022 point source data are compiled (esp those that submit a full inventory) * Remember rail yards and airports also live in the point inventory
  • Alison sent list of permanent and temporary shutdowns 2020-2022
  • Wiki is up to date with notes
  • Draft 2022 point inventory will be generated by Feb 1

Nonpoint

  • December meeting to continue thinking about how to create 2022 nonpoint emissions for each sector
  • Will set up another call to try to come to consensus on how to do each sector
  • Wiki is up to date
  • Trying to look at summaries of emissions that would be most impacted by COVID

Mobile (onroad/nonroad)

  • Next meeting is Thursday 1/11 at 3:30
  • Gave update on 2021 at MOVES MJO mid-month
  • 2022 VMT will hopefully be available from FHWA sometime in February
  • Note that GA starts are only for Atlanta area + some VPOP data for 2022
  • EPA contractor will start pulling data into an integrated dataset soon
  • CT provided EV penetration and VMT data; confirming that US EPA received these data
  • EPA still trying to figure out how to use the EV penetration data

Marine/air/rail

  • Last met Nov 29
  • Mark Janssen is now a co-chair
  • Alexandria (NY DEC) – 2026 projections for air rail and CMV – needs information on spreadsheets – working on this for NY SIP
  • Shantha (TCEQ): can they provide a full 2022 air inventory? They have all the airports they need for SIP work. Probably yes but will discuss offline (Modeling group worked on this inventory)
  • 2022 AIS data for CMV should be coming to EPA soon
  • EPA will share 2021 CMV summaries / data around mid-January once QA issues are cleaned up
  • Inventory will have 80 SCCs (more than 2020)
  • Rail: working on getting new info on fleet mixes so we can compute the new rail for 2022
  • Otherwise, reviewing TSDs to see what has been in recent platforms
  • Next MAR task force meeting is 1/25

Oil and gas

Woodheating task force

  • Is this adequately covered under nonpoint?
  • Judy was on the RWH task force (has staff on it) – rwc seems adequately covered
  • Alison gave a presentation on the platform to the group today
  • Task force might be providing some data that could be used for v2 platform, but not for v1
  • There was a big change from 2017->2020 – grew 80% in WA in 2020 - what is 2020 performance in WA in wintertime PM? Were there any areas where it seemed the performance was poor / degraded from previous runs? Alison to check with modelers

December 6, 2023

EGU

  • Will meet with national EGU WG 12/14 @ 11 Eastern: We can discuss Part 75 sources – non-traditional discussion at this call “industrial units”
  • Next call Jan 25th at 2 Eastern (4th Thursday at 2 Eastern)

Industrial point

  • next call 12/18 at 1PM eastern
  • Sent recent base year state+SCC level report emissions for 2016-2021
  • Alison sent closure list
  • Point source subtraction is a potential issue (esp oil and gas, we address for solvents, there may be other key sectors)

Nonpoint:

  • ICI fuel combustion is key subsector for point source subtraction
  • Next meeting is 12/7 at 10AM – will review comments
  • Considering 2020-2022 first
  • Qualitatively, sub-sectors impacted by COVID: cremation, sectors that are VMT-related
  • a summary may be needed to facilitate discussion
  • See the summary of proposed emissions methods on TF Wiki page

Mobile (onroad/nonroad)

  • Next meeting Jan 11 at 3:30

Oil and gas

  • They are going to use national O&G WG call to bring updates to community
  • will have a projections panel discussion on December 19.
  • 2022 oil and gas emissions work just started – hope to have activity by end of Jan and compute emissions in February; WY is submitting own emissions
  • Next meeting: December 19 at 2 Eastern, January 11 at 2 Eastern

Marine/airport/rail:

  • Met Nov 29.
  • MARAMA CMV 12/13 at 11 to show data for 2021 – there is a standing meeting time 3rd
  • Next meeting 1/25 at 3PM
  • No volunteers for co-lead yet
  • Next WG meeting 1/3 at 4PM eastern

Tom Moore thinks that it would be helpful to prepare summaries over the summer as we get the results including some information on how the projections were done. Some documentation on how 2022 was developed as well.

A spreadsheet could be helpful for certain categories (e.g., nonpoint)

  • Zac: We may need a ‘todo list’ on Wiki page
  • Mark J has some graphics he will share on MOVES MJO

November 1, 2023

Agenda

  •        Introduce the co-leads and review the sector review task force assignments (see below)

  •        Discuss approaches for gathering projection methods for review

  •        Discuss approaches for organizing the task force meetings

  •        Join (or select) a task force if you haven't signed up, or if you signed up for too many

Task Force To Do

  •        Gather the projection methods (TSDs or other EPA docs) for the sources in teach task force

  •        Organize the group and data sources for review

  •        Work with the group to identify the review approach, e.g., how will you prioritize the review and what methods will be used to look through the information

  •        Conduct the review and confirm the projection approach for the sources covered by the task force; identify alternative sources/methods for projection information

  •        Flag new or alternative methods that deviate from the conventional EPA approaches

  •        Document the review process and highlight any significant changes/recommendations

At this meeting, we discussed how the workgroup members could be divided into task forces that could discuss details about projections for the sectors to be covered by each task force.

Notes

October 4, 2023

A this call, the projection methods by sector summary was reviewed and edited. Workgroup members started to indicate the sectors for which they are interested in participating in discussions.

September 6, 2023

At this call, we discussed the proposed charter for the workgroup and priorities for the coming months.

Task Force Action Items

  • Identify the projection review approach, e.g., how will you prioritize the review and what methods will be used to look through the information

  • Gather the projection methods (TSDs or other EPA docs) for the sources in teach task force
    • Review national projections vs regional/state level projection approaches; are there national backstops; when will states need to provide state-specific data to replace the national backstop
    • Are there regional/state specific control information/rules that can brought into the platform
  • Conduct the review and confirm the projection approach for the sources covered by the task force; identify alternative sources/methods for projection information
  • Flag new or alternative methods that deviate from the conventional EPA approaches
  • Document the review process and highlight any significant changes/recommendations
  • Where to start: 2020 projections to 2022
    • Will not have sector specific data for nonpoint data and industrial point (sources that will not have actual 2022 data)
    • Look at 2021 point data as a surrogate for which sources will not submit 2022 data
    • Need to identify methods to go from 2020 to 2022
    • This needs to be done by January
  • After the 2020 to 2022 approach, work on the 2022 to the analytic years projections

Continuous Emissions Monitoring System (CEMS) data

MARAMA Projection tool