Industrial Point Projection Task Force

Summary of EPA Projection Methods

• See section 4.2.3.6 in the 2016v3 TSD for non-EGU point projection methods
• See section 4.2.4 for control methods
• For the 2016v3 platform, 2023 non-EGU point was set to 2019 EIS and state submitted point source data minus plant closures that were known to occur between 2019 and 2023
• 2026 emissions were thendthen projected from the 2023 emissions
• Start with a base year (e.g., 2020 or 2021)
• What will this be for the 2022 EMP?
• Remove known closures from the inventory (based on EIS and state-submitted data)
• Q: Where can we find the most recent CLOSURE packet?
• Apply projection factors from AEO; MARAMA provides their own projections
• For the 2016v3 inventory projections are based on 2022 regional industrial source energy consumption ((e.g., AEO, 2022)
• See Table 4-14 in the 2016v3 TSD for the list of AEO tables of projection information
• Projection factors (2026 energy/2023 energy) capped at 1.3; no floor for contraction of emissions
• Q: What is the mapping between the AEO energy use tables and SCCs or NAICs?
• Apply controls for national rules: RICE NSPS, natural gas turbine NSPS, process heaters NSPS, boiler MACT, etc.