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Onroad/Nonroad

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2022 Emissions Modeling Platform Wiki Main Page

Projections page

Onroad/Nonroad Task Force/National Group

Co-leads: Farren Thorpe and Janice Godfrey

Resources

Meetings

Kickoff Meeting 11/30/2023

Agenda (meeting notes added)

  • Introductions
  • Discuss the base year 2022
    • VMT was requested voluntarily from the states
      • Typically we get county level VMT from FHWA. FHWA could not provide VMT for 2021.
        • We have a pending request with FHWA to get anything possible for 2022
      • States that provided data thus far: GA, Jefferson County KY, NY, ME, AK, VA, WV, MD, WA, CO, MI, NY, KS, TX
      • States that have not provided emissions projected forward from 2020
      • 2021 state adjustments were based on state total VMT
    • VPOP
      • 2021 was held constant from 2020. For 2022, we may want to make some adjustments.
        • FHWA state statistics
    • Other activity discussions
      • ONI from OTAQ
      • Hoteling based on VMT
      • Starts from contractor- GA provides their own
    • EPA has looked at FHWA TMAS Class Data for 2021. VMT fraction by hour, by state, by vehicle class.
      • Have not started on 2022
    • Representative counties, same as what was used in 2020 NEI
      • Taskforce can review and make suggestions
    • SMOKE/MOVES w/MOVES4
  • Nonroad
    • Load factors too high?

Happy New Year!

Agenda for 1/11/24 (meeting notenotes added)

  • EPA can go over onroad results for 2021. The 2021 used MOVES4. Some inputs will be the same for 2020, 2021, and 2022 (e.g., rep counties?). Presentation (made to MJO MOVES) attached.
    • It was noted that OR stood out somewhat and reason was the use of state-level data as opposed to county-level.
  • VPOP discussion (constant vs adjustments).
    • National 2022 VPOP dataset will not be available in time for v1, but should be ready for v2.
    • GA supplied VPOP information
  • States that provided VMT data thus far: CT, GA, MA, NY, MD, WA, ME, VA, CO, TN, AK, WV, KS, NH, NJ, OR, DE, SC, NC, TX, WI, MI, NC and Jefferson Co. KY
  • Still don’t know if/what county-level data we will get from FHWA.
  • EPA starting on FHWA TMAS Class Data for 2022. VMT fraction by hour, by state, by vehicle class.
    • Reviewed the 2021 TMAS plots with the group and discussed how some profiles weren't quite as expected (e.g., 21s and 30s).
  • Discuss proposed plans for age distributions for the 2022 base year.
    • Alison showed plots. We will likely hold age distributions constant.
      • Recession dip, which is fairly washed out, will occur in 2010 instead of 2008.
      • Adjustment will be made for the fact that newer cars continue to increase.
  • Non-road: will 2022 population estimates be used and if so can states submit their own 2022 population?
    • Nonroad equipment data has not changed in many years. But EPA will run the model for 2022.
    • Spatial surrogates won’t be updated and are still pretty old, but county values can be redistributed after-the-fact if needed
  • Analytic years: Do we want to make adjustments to rep counties based on changes to I/M programs?
    • We want to consider I/M programs that are on the books in analytic years. Contractor researching what we see in the model now.

Agenda for 2/8/24 (meeting notes added)

  •        VPOP discussion (constant vs adjustments).
    •        National 2022 VPOP dataset will not be available in time for v1, but should be ready for v2.
    •        EPA is looking at the percent difference between electric between 2020 and 2022.
  •        States that provided VMT data: CT, GA, MA, NY, MD, WA, ME, VA, CO, TN, AK, WV, KS, NH, NJ, OR, DE, SC, NC, TX, WI, MI, NC and Jefferson Co. KY
  •        We did receive county-level VMT data for 2022 from FHWA this week. We are still looking it over.
    •        FHWA VMT will be used in states that did not supply VMT.
  •        Representative counties are finalized.
  •        Age distributions finalized.
  • Speed distribution coming from January 2020 data.
  •        MOVES runs starting soon. EFs by the end of the month.
  •        Emissions by the next meeting.
  •        GHG rules that are soon to be on the books will not be in this version of MOVES4 that we will be using for v1.
    •        Is there something we can do to reflect the most recent rules that will not be in MOVES4.
  •        Analytic years:

Next meeting 2/8/20243/14/2024 at 3:30 EST.

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Future meetings standing on second Thursday of month at 3:30 EST.