Nonpoint Projections Task Force
Contents [hide]
Co-Leads
Andy Bollman (NCDEQ) and Lindsay Dayton (EPA)Schedule
- 20 Nov 2023 (3:00-4:00pm EST): Kickoff Meeting
- Proposed Emission Projection Methods Comments - Provide by 4 December 2023
- 7 Dec 2023 (10:00-11:00am EST): NP Projections Meeting #2
- 22 Jan 2024 (3:00pm-4:00pm EST): NP Projections Meeting #3
- 1 Mar 2024 (11:00am-12:00pm EST): NP Projections Meeting #4
- 29 Apr 2024 (4:00pm-5:00pm EST): NP Projections Meeting #5
- 13 Jun 2024 (11:00am-12:00pm EST): NP Projections Meeting #6
TBA:10 Jul 2024 (3:00pm-4:00pm EST): NP Projections Meeting #7
Call Notes
Meeting 1: November 20, 2023
Agenda with Notes
- Introductions
- Timeline Goals
- Have final review/decisions for 2020 to 2022 recommended projection methods by end of December or early January
- Focus on analytical years from 2022 on afterwards in the beginning of 2024
- Discuss the Summary of Proposed Emission Projection Methods by Source Category table (see 'Table of Documents' at bottom of page)
- Discuss timeline for next meeting
- Next meeting will occur before the end of the year after the Work Group's overall meeting on 7 December 2023
- We will discuss comments on the Summary of Proposed Emission Projection Methods in the next meeting
Action Items
- Go through the Proposed Emission Projection Methods table and do the following in a copy of your own in Yellow:
- Rank the source categories by priority with 1 being the highest and 3 being the lowest
- Comment "Yes" to source categories you believe have potentially significant COVID impacts - or remove any existing "Yes" identifier if there's no potentially significant impacts
- Provide comments on recommended methods/data to develop the 2022 emissions and any additional input on the above entries
- For reference, the summaries of the methods used to adjust historical years reflect the following previous modeling platforms:
- 2016v1 – methods that were generally used to grow 2014 emissions to 2016 (see column H)
- 2016v3 – methods that were generally used to back-cast 2017 emissions to 2016 (see columns I thru K)
- 2019 – methods that were generally used to grow 2017 emissions to 2019 (see columns M thru O)
Meeting 2: December 07, 2023
Agenda with Notes- Recap of previous meeting
- Brief explanation of fields for methods, prioritization, COVID implications, and comments
- Discuss comments made on the categorization/methodology of Sectors and their Source Categories
- We reviewed which source categories should be prioritized, may have substantial COVID impacts, and how the group should approach each projection method
- Next meeting info
- A meeting will be scheduled for 22 January 2024
Action Items
- Continue looking through the emissions projection methods and send comments if any arise
- Co-chairs will consolidate and summarize comments and the discussion in a file of Proposed Projections for the task force (see 'Table of Documents' at bottom of page)
- Respond to a poll to plan the next date/time for the next meeting once doodle poll is sent out
Meeting 3: January 22, 2024
Agenda with Notes- Recap of previous meeting
- Discussion to begin solidifying the proposed projections
- A draft of the final 2020-2022 Nonpoint Projection Methods will be created by co-leads based on the discussion (see 'Table of Documents' at bottom of page)
- Next meeting info
- A meeting will be scheduled for 1 March 2024
Action Items
- Review the final draft of the 2020-2022 Nonpoint Projection Methods once the co-leads have completed it
- Brainstorm ideas of approaching how to develop projection methods for analytic years
- Respond to the doodle poll to plan the next date/time for the next meeting by COB February 21
Meeting 4: March 1, 2024
Agenda with Notes- Discuss any comments and finalize the draft of the final 2022 projections methods
- Review methods and EPA's comments
- Discussed with EPA clarifications on the progress of sector projections/data and consensus on methods
- Discuss plans for how to approach developing the projection methods for analytic years.
- Discussed with EPA for the feasibility of incorporating new projection methods for analytic years (readily available national data would allow feasibility)
- EPA suggests the taskforce comes to a consensus by June
- Taskforce should keep in communication with residential wood workgroups
- Taskforce will communicate with MARMA to reference their SCC crosswalk
Action Items
- Data Preview Call [March 27] - EPA will go over the tools for reviewing data and method for submitting comments. Contact Mary Uhl to be invited to this meeting
- Contact the co-leads with comments or suggestions on methodologies for the projections
- The next meeting will either be at the end of March or the beginning of April depending on the lead time needed to get materials ready
- Will be looking at the SCC level data
Meeting 5: April 29, 2024
Agenda with Notes- Discuss the analytic year projection comparison workbook and methodologies used/recommended by the following:
- EPA
- MARAMA
- NCDEQ
- The comparison was done on an SCC level basis and categories of interest were as follows (see 'Table of Documents' at bottom of page):
- Industrial Surface Coating,
- Petroleum Storage and Transport,
- Residential Wood Combustion (added importance due to the PM2.5 NAAQS),
- Stationary Fuel Combustion for Industrial and Commercial
Action Items
- Continue discussions concerning data sources.
- Find possible methods to compile the projections per SCCs into aggregate categories.
- Once the most up to date analytic year projection comparison has been uploaded, task members should review the methods/sources for further discussion.
- The next meeting will be scheduled within the next month.
- Respond to the doodle poll to plan the next date/time for the next meeting by COB June 4
Meeting 6: June 13, 2024
Agenda with Notes- Review analytic year sector grouping projection workbook (see 'Table of Documents' at bottom of page):
- NC Methods
- MARAMA methods
- EPA Methods
- Discuss methods to use for projection to analytic years for this EMP
Action Items
- Continue to review the "Analytic Year Projection Methods Comparison" file
- See email "2022 EMP NP Taskforce Meeting #7 - Doodle Poll" for a summary and description of the worksheets (email Lindsay, Andy, or Nikole for these details)
- Respond to the doodle poll to plan the next meeting's date/time by COB July 3
Meeting 7: TBAJuly 10, 2024
Agenda with Notes
- Finalize methods for projection nonpoint to analytic years for the 2022 EMP
- Review any action items
Action Items
Table of Documents
| File Name | Date | File Attachment |
| Summary of Proposed Emissions Projection Methods by Source Category | 22 Nov 2023 | Download File |
| Sector SCC Summaries | 22 Nov 2023 | Download File |
| Initial 2022 NP Proposed Projections | 12 Dec 2023 | Download File |
| DRAFT of Final 2020-2022 Nonpoint Projection Methods | 07 Feb 2024 | Download File |
| Final 2020-2022 Nonpoint Projection Methods | 14 Mar 2024 | Download File |
| Analytic Year Projection Methods Comparison | 31 May 2024 | Download File |