Oil and Gas Projections Task Force

2022 Emissions Modeling Platform Wiki Main Page

Projections page

Oil and Gas Projections Task Force

Co-leads: Jeff Vukovich, Tom Richardson

Resources

• National Oil & Gas Emissions Committee (NOGEC) Information Repository https://vibe.cira.colostate.edu/OGEC/

Meetings

NOGEC Meeting 12/19/2023

Meeting Agenda
Meeting Recording

Summary of Topics Discussed

• Oil and gas projections panel - Tom Moore (RAQC)
• How future oil and gas production is estimated
• How these projections are used to estimate future emissions
• A description of different projections methods
• Historical trends approach used for WRAP future year emissions inventories - John Grant (Ramboll)
• Hubbert's curve approach - Michael Ege (TCEQ)
• Default approach used for the 2016 EMP - Jeff Vukovich (EPA)
• No growth option (keep activity constant)
• Looking at Point versus Non-Point reporting for oil and gas sources – Jeff Vukovich (EPA)
• Information & Action Items – Michael Ege (TCEQ)

NOGEC Meeting 1/11/2024

Summary of Topics Discussed

• Obtaining 2022 oil and gas activity data – Regi Oommen
• Update on Modeling Platform work – Jeff Vukovich (EPA)
• Information & Action Items – Michael Ege (TCEQ)

NOGEC Meeting 2/8/2024

Summary of Topics Discussed

• EPA’s Final rule for Oil and Natural Gas Operations – Frank Benjamin-Eze or Amy Hambrick (EPA)
• Updated 2022 EPA tool for the modeling platform – Jeff Vukovich (EPA)
• Summary maps provided
• 2022 draft activity data is available at: https://gaftp.epa.gov/Air/emismod/2022/draft/oilgas/ACTIVITY_SUMMARY_2022_20240117_EXPANDED.xlsx
• 2022 draft activity data is also available for tribal lands: https://gaftp.epa.gov/Air/emismod/2022/draft/oilgas/ACTIVITY_SUMMARY_2022_20240117_EXPANDED_TRIBAL.xlsx
• Deadline for feedback to EPA on review of activity data: February 19, 2024.
• Information & Action Items – Michael Ege (TCEQ)

NOGEC Meeting 3/14/2024

Summary of Topics Discussed

• EDF’s study on Low-Producing Oil and Gas Wells – Jon Goldstein and Mark Omara (EDF)
• Low-producing wells (less than 15 barrels of oil equivalent per day) account for 6% of the nation’s oil and gas production.
• However, they are responsible for about half of the methane emitted from all wells sites.
• These wells emit methane at a rate 6-12 times the national average.
• Approximately 10% of the gas leaks directly to the atmosphere.
• Study published in Nature Communications, and is available at: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-29709-3

• Reviewing the 2022 point source oil and gas emissions – Jeff Vukovich (EPA)
• Summary of the draft 2022 inventory for oil and gas point sources.
• Comparison of the 2022 point inventory with oil and gas point sources in the 2020 NEI.
• Discussion of plans for future year (analytic year) projections and possible approaches for oil and gas point sources.
• Discussion of the April 2024 review period.
• Update on oil and gas sector work for the 2022 EMP.

• Information & Action Items – Michael Ege (TCEQ)

NOGEC Meeting 2/8/2024

Summary of Topics Discussed

• EPA’s Final rule for Oil and Natural Gas Operations – Frank Benjamin-Eze or Amy Hambrick (EPA)
• Updated 2022 EPA tool for the modeling platform – Jeff Vukovich (EPA)
• Summary maps provided
• 2022 draft activity data is available at: https://gaftp.epa.gov/Air/emismod/2022/draft/oilgas/ACTIVITY_SUMMARY_2022_20240117_EXPANDED.xlsx
• 2022 draft activity data is also available for tribal lands: https://gaftp.epa.gov/Air/emismod/2022/draft/oilgas/ACTIVITY_SUMMARY_2022_20240117_EXPANDED_TRIBAL.xlsx
• Deadline for feedback to EPA on review of activity data: February 19, 2024.
• Information & Action Items – Michael Ege (TCEQ)

NOGEC Meeting 1/11/2024

Summary of Topics Discussed

• Obtaining 2022 oil and gas activity data – Regi Oommen
• Update on Modeling Platform work – Jeff Vukovich (EPA)
• Information & Action Items – Michael Ege (TCEQ)

NOGEC Meeting 12/19/2023

Meeting Agenda
Meeting Recording

Summary of Topics Discussed

• Oil and gas projections panel - Tom Moore (RAQC)
• How future oil and gas production is estimated
• How these projections are used to estimate future emissions
• A description of different projections methods
• Historical trends approach used for WRAP future year emissions inventories - John Grant (Ramboll)
• Hubbert's curve approach - Michael Ege (TCEQ)
• Default approach used for the 2016 EMP - Jeff Vukovich (EPA)
• No growth option (keep activity constant)
• Looking at Point versus Non-Point reporting for oil and gas sources – Jeff Vukovich (EPA)
• Information & Action Items – Michael Ege (TCEQ)