Projections workgroup for the 2022 Platform
2022 Emissions Modeling Platform Wiki Main Page
Projections Workgroup Meetings
Workgroup coordinators: Zac Adelman and Alison Eyth
November 1, 2023
Agenda
- Introduce the co-leads and review the sector review task force assignments (see below)
- Discuss approaches for gathering projection methods for review
- Discuss approaches for organizing the task force meetings
- Join (or select) a task force if you haven't signed up, or if you signed up for too many
Task Force To Do
- Gather the projection methods (TSDs or other EPA docs) for the sources in teach task force
- Organize the group and data sources for review
- Work with the group to identify the review approach, e.g., how will you prioritize the review and what methods will be used to look through the information
- Conduct the review and confirm the projection approach for the sources covered by the task force; identify alternative sources/methods for projection information
- Flag new or alternative methods that deviate from the conventional EPA approaches
- Document the review process and highlight any significant changes/recommendations
At this meeting, we discussed how the workgroup members could be divided into task forces that could discuss details about projections for the sectors to be covered by each task force.
October 4, 2023
A this call, the projection methods by sector summary was reviewed and edited. Workgroup members started to indicate the sectors for which they are interested in participating in discussions.
September 6, 2023
At this call, we discussed the proposed charter for the workgroup and priorities for the coming months.
Task Force Wikis
The projections workgroup organized into task forces to review the projection methods and data for different inventory sectors. Notes and work products for the task forces are available in the following wikis.
- Electricity Generating Units (EGU), Co-leads: Alison Eyth and Susan McCusker
- Industrial Point, Co-leads: Zac Adelman and Rhonda Payne
- Nonpoint, Co-leads: Lindsay Dayton and Andy Bollman
- Mobile, Co-leads: Janice Godfrey and Farren Thorpe
- Oil & Gas, Co-leads: Jeff Vukovich and Tom Richardson
- Marine/Airports/Rail (MAR), Co-leads: Janice Godfrey
Task Force Action Items
- Identify the projection review approach, e.g., how will you prioritize the review and what methods will be used to look through the information
- Gather the projection methods (TSDs or other EPA docs) for the sources in teach task force
- Review national projections vs regional/state level projection approaches; are there national backstops; when will states need to provide state-specific data to replace the national backstop
- Are there regional/state specific control information/rules that can brought into the platform
- Conduct the review and confirm the projection approach for the sources covered by the task force; identify alternative sources/methods for projection information
- Flag new or alternative methods that deviate from the conventional EPA approaches
- Document the review process and highlight any significant changes/recommendations
- Where to start: 2020 projections to 2022
- Will not have sector specific data for nonpoint data and industrial point (sources that will not have actual 2022 data)
- Look at 2021 point data as a surrogate for which sources will not submit 2022 data
- Need to identify methods to go from 2020 to 2022
- This needs to be done by January
- After the 2020 to 2022 approach, work on the 2022 to the analytic years projections
Resources
Project Methods by Sector Document2016v3 TSD (analytic years); includes SMOKE projection packets by sector/SCC
2019 TSD (most recent interim year)