Nonpoint Projections Task Force

Co-Leads

Andy Bollman (NCDEQ) and Lindsay Dayton (EPA)

Schedule

• 20 Nov 2023 (3:00-4:00pm EST): Kickoff Meeting
• Proposed Emission Projection Methods Comments - Provide by 4 December 2023
• 7 Dec 2023 (10:00-11:00am EST): NP Projections Meeting

Call Notes

November 20, 2023

Agenda with Notes

• Introductions
• Timeline Goals
• Have final review/decisions for 2020 to 2022 recommended projection methods by end of December or early January
• Focus on analytical years from 2022 on afterwards in the beginning of 2024
• Discuss the Summary of Proposed Emission Projection Methods by Source Category table (see 'Table of Documents' at bottom of page)
• Discuss timeline for next meeting
• Next meeting will occur before the end of the year after the Work Group's overall meeting on 6 December 2023
• We will discuss comments on the Summary of Proposed Emission Projection Methods in the next meeting

Action Items

• Go through the Proposed Emission Projection Methods table and do the following in a copy of your own in Yellow:
• Rank the source categories by priority with 1 being the highest and 3 being the lowest
• Comment "Yes" to source categories you believe have potentially significant COVID impacts - or remove any existing "Yes" identifier if there's no potentially significant impacts
• Provide comments on recommended methods/data to develop the 2022 emissions and any additional input on the above entries
• For reference, the summaries of the methods used to adjust historical years reflect the following previous modeling platforms:
• 2016v1 – methods that were generally used to grow 2014 emissions to 2016 (see column H)
• 2016v3 – methods that were generally used to back-cast 2017 emissions to 2016 (see columns I thru K)
• 2019 – methods that were generally used to grow 2017 emissions to 2019 (see columns M thru O)

2022

December Inventory07, Approach

2023Agenda with Notes

ProposedAction approach for calculating 2022 emissions for the Nonpoint sector:

Summary of EPA Projection Methods

Basic EPA projection methodology

1. Apply closures to base year data
2. Add projection information from EIS
3. Add federal control programs
4. Add state/local control programs

Details of the EPA methods

• See section 4.2.3.6 in the 2016v3 TSD for non-EGU point projection methods
• See section 4.2.4 for control methods
• For the 2016v3 platform, 2023 non-EGU point was set to 2019 EIS and state submitted point source data minus plant closures that were known to occur between 2019 and 2023
• 2026 emissions were then projected from the 2023 emissions
• Start with a base year (e.g., 2020 or 2021)
• What will this be for the 2022 EMP?
• Remove known closures from the inventory (based on EIS and state-submitted data)
• Q: Where can we find the most recent CLOSURE packet?
• Apply projection factors from AEO; MARAMA provides their own projections
• For the 2016v3 inventory projections are based on 2022 regional industrial source energy consumption (e.g., AEO, 2022)
• See Table 4-14 in the 2016v3 TSD for the list of AEO tables of projection information
• Projection factors (2026 energy/2023 energy) capped at 1.3; no floor for contraction of emissions
• Q: What is the mapping between the AEO energy use tables and SCCs or NAICs?
• Apply controls for national rules: RICE NSPS, natural gas turbine NSPS, process heaters NSPS, boiler MACT, etc.

Items

Table of Documents

File Name	Date	Version	File Attachment^
Summary of Proposed Emissions Projection Methods by Source Category	22 Nov 2023	V.1
Sector SCC Summaries	22 Nov 2023	V.1

^Attachments will be added soon