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Nonpoint Projections Task Force


Andy Bollman (NCDEQ) and Lindsay Dayton (EPA)


  • 20 Nov 2023 (3:00-4:00pm EST): Kickoff Meeting
    • Proposed Emission Projection Methods Comments - Provide by 4 December 2023
  • 7 Dec 2023 (10:00-11:00am EST): NP Projections Meeting

Call Notes

November 20, 2023

Agenda with Notes

  • Introductions
  • Timeline Goals
    • Have final review/decisions for 2020 to 2022 recommended projection methods by end of December or early January
    • Focus on analytical years from 2022 on afterwards in the beginning of 2024
  • Discuss the Summary of Proposed Emission Projection Methods by Source Category table (see 'Table of Documents' at bottom of page)
  • Discuss timeline for next meeting
    • Next meeting will occur before the end of the year after the Work Group's overall meeting on 6 December 2023
    • We will discuss comments on the Summary of Proposed Emission Projection Methods in the next meeting

Action Items

  • Go through the Proposed Emission Projection Methods table and do the following in a copy of your own in Yellow:
    • Rank the source categories by priority with 1 being the highest and 3 being the lowest
    • Comment "Yes" to source categories you believe have potentially significant COVID impacts - or remove any existing "Yes" identifier if there's no potentially significant impacts
    • Provide comments on recommended methods/data to develop the 2022 emissions and any additional input on the above entries
  • For reference, the summaries of the methods used to adjust historical years reflect the following previous modeling platforms:
    • 2016v1 – methods that were generally used to grow 2014 emissions to 2016 (see column H)
    • 2016v3 – methods that were generally used to back-cast 2017 emissions to 2016 (see columns I thru K)
    • 2019 – methods that were generally used to grow 2017 emissions to 2019 (see columns M thru O)


December Inventory07, Approach

2023Agenda with Notes

ProposedAction approach for calculating 2022 emissions for the Nonpoint sector:

Summary of EPA Projection Methods

Basic EPA projection methodology

  1. Apply closures to base year data
  2. Add projection information from EIS
  3. Add federal control programs
  4. Add state/local control programs

Details of the EPA methods

  • See section in the 2016v3 TSD for non-EGU point projection methods
    • See section 4.2.4 for control methods
    • For the 2016v3 platform, 2023 non-EGU point was set to 2019 EIS and state submitted point source data minus plant closures that were known to occur between 2019 and 2023
    • 2026 emissions were then projected from the 2023 emissions
  • Start with a base year (e.g., 2020 or 2021)
    • What will this be for the 2022 EMP?
  • Remove known closures from the inventory (based on EIS and state-submitted data)
    • Q: Where can we find the most recent CLOSURE packet?
  • Apply projection factors from AEO; MARAMA provides their own projections
    • For the 2016v3 inventory projections are based on 2022 regional industrial source energy consumption (e.g., AEO, 2022)
    • See Table 4-14 in the 2016v3 TSD for the list of AEO tables of projection information
    • Projection factors (2026 energy/2023 energy) capped at 1.3; no floor for contraction of emissions
    • Q: What is the mapping between the AEO energy use tables and SCCs or NAICs?
  • Apply controls for national rules: RICE NSPS, natural gas turbine NSPS, process heaters NSPS, boiler MACT, etc.

Table of Documents

File Name Date Version File Attachment^
Summary of Proposed Emissions Projection Methods by Source Category22 Nov 2023V.1
Sector SCC Summaries22 Nov 2023V.1
^Attachments will be added soon