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Onroad/Nonroad

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2022 Emissions Modeling Platform Wiki Main Page

Projections page

Onroad/Nonroad Task Force/National Group

Co-leads: Farren Thorpe and Janice Godfrey

Resources

Presentations

Meetings

Kickoff Meeting 11/30/2023

Agenda (meeting notes added)

  • Introductions
  • Discuss the base year 2022
    • VMT was requested voluntarily from the states
      • Typically we get county level VMT from FHWA. FHWA could not provide VMT for 2021.
        • We have a pending request with FHWA to get anything possible for 2022
      • States that provided data thus far: GA, Jefferson County KY, NY, ME, AK, VA, WV, MD, WA, CO, MI, NY, KS, TX
      • States that have not provided emissions projected forward from 2020
      • 2021 state adjustments were based on state total VMT
    • VPOP
      • 2021 was held constant from 2020. For 2022, we may want to make some adjustments.
        • FHWA state statistics
    • Other activity discussions
      • ONI from OTAQ
      • Hoteling based on VMT
      • Starts from contractor- GA provides their own
    • EPA has looked at FHWA TMAS Class Data for 2021. VMT fraction by hour, by state, by vehicle class.
      • Have not started on 2022
    • Representative counties, same as what was used in 2020 NEI
      • Taskforce can review and make suggestions
    • SMOKE/MOVES w/MOVES4
  • Nonroad
    • Load factors too high?

Happy New Year!

Agenda for 1/11/24 (meeting notes added)

  • EPA can go over onroad results for 2021. The 2021 used MOVES4. Some inputs will be the same for 2020, 2021, and 2022 (e.g., rep counties?). Presentation (made to MJO MOVES) attached.
    • It was noted that OR stood out somewhat and reason was the use of state-level data as opposed to county-level.
  • VPOP discussion (constant vs adjustments).
    • National 2022 VPOP dataset will not be available in time for v1, but should be ready for v2.
    • GA supplied VPOP information
  • States that provided VMT data thus far: CT, GA, MA, NY, MD, WA, ME, VA, CO, TN, AK, WV, KS, NH, NJ, OR, DE, SC, NC, TX, WI, MI, and Jefferson Co. KY
  • Still don’t know if/what county-level data we will get from FHWA.
  • EPA starting on FHWA TMAS Class Data for 2022. VMT fraction by hour, by state, by vehicle class.
    • Reviewed the 2021 TMAS plots with the group and discussed how some profiles weren't quite as expected (e.g., 21s and 30s).
  • Discuss proposed plans for age distributions for the 2022 base year.
    • Alison showed plots. We will likely hold age distributions constant.
      • Recession dip, which is fairly washed out, will occur in 2010 instead of 2008.
      • Adjustment will be made for the fact that newer cars continue to increase.
  • Non-road: will 2022 population estimates be used and if so can states submit their own 2022 population?
    • Nonroad equipment data has not changed in many years. But EPA will run the model for 2022.
    • Spatial surrogates won’t be updated and are still pretty old, but county values can be redistributed after-the-fact if needed
  • Analytic years: Do we want to make adjustments to rep counties based on changes to I/M programs?
    • We want to consider I/M programs that are on the books in analytic years. Contractor researching what we see in the model now.

Agenda for 2/8/24 (meeting notes added)

  • VPOP discussion (constant vs adjustments).
    • National 2022 VPOP dataset will not be available in time for v1, but should be ready for v2.
    • EPA is looking at the percent difference between electric between 2020 and 2022.
  • States that provided VMT data: CT, GA, MA, NY, MD, WA, ME, VA, CO, TN, AK, WV, KS, NH, NJ, OR, DE, SC, NC, TX, WI, MI, and Jefferson Co. KY
  • We did receive county-level VMT data for 2022 from FHWA this week. We are still looking it over.
    • FHWA VMT will be used in states that did not supply VMT.
  • Representative counties are finalized.
  • Age distributions finalized.
  • Speed distribution coming from January 2020 data.
  • MOVES runs starting soon. EFs by the end of the month.
  • Emissions by the next meeting.
  • GHG rules that are soon to be on the books will not be in this version of MOVES4 that we will be using for v1.
    • Is there something we can do to reflect the most recent rules that will not be in MOVES4.
  • Analytic years: no discussion.

Agenda for 4/11/24 (meeting notes added)

  • Emissions are available.
    • Presented emissions for onroad and nonroad at last MJO MOVES meeting.
  • GHG rules that are soon to be on the books will not be in this version of MOVES4 that we will be using for v1.
    • Is there something we can do to reflect the most recent rules that will not be in MOVES4.
    • Once we obtain adjustment factors we can share and discuss with the group.
      • May have a plan by June
  • Analytic years
    • No 2024 AEO available
  • MOVES Nonroad will be run for analytic years.
    • If there are studies that suggest that electric equipment will be increasing. Hope to incorporate.
  • Struggling to find an analysis that encompasses all states and rules/standards to rely on for analytic years.
    • States are really relying on MOVES to estimate future ev penetration.
      • There is an avft tool on the MOVES website. Could this be used??

5/9/2024 meeting cancelled

  • NC may be providing projected VMT

Agenda for 6/13/2024 (meeting notes added)

  • The nonroad runs are done
    • NC asked if there will be time to review. EPA will hopefully be able to share the flat file, but will not have any products (summaries or plots) available in time to make any changes to v1.

  • OTAQ is still working on adjustment factors for Analytic years. But will likely be in the form of SCCs by state.
    • NC asked if adjustments could be reviewed to compared to what states would do for analytic years. EPA stated that It would be good to have a call where states can ask questions about the adjustments (perhaps July MJO MOVES call).
    • There was also concern that the adjustments would be at the state level for v1.

  • EPA is accepting activity for analytic years where it is available, by July 12
    • VPOP and age distribution not needed
      • NC asked if new IHS data would be available for v1 and it will not be available until v2
    • CO, NY, and IL (Chicago) will probably submit for the year 2026.
    • NC and NJ will probably submit for all 3 analytic years.

Next regularly scheduled meeting 7/11/2024/20248/8/2024/2024 at 3:30 EST.

Agenda for 8/8/2024 (meeting notes added)

  • Reviewed slides for onroad/nonroad projection methods
  • SMOKE MOVES still running for 2032 and 2038
    • More to come on MJO MOVES call 8/15/2024
  • EPA will post CDBs for all platform years
  • EPA will discuss with OTAQ if there is a way states can use their adjustment factors

Next regularly scheduled meeting 9/12/2024 at 3:30 EST.

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Future meetings standing on second Thursday of month at 3:30 EST.