Nonpoint Projections Task Force
Call Notes
November 20, 2023
Agenda
- 2022 inventory
- Discuss methods to calculate 2022 emissions for this sector
- Projection methods and data
- Review US EPA methods for projection non-EGU point sources
- Orient to where to access data used in projecting this sector
- Next call in December
- Compare MARAMA and US EPA methods
- Review data for the 2022 EMP: closures, projections (which version of AEO?), controls
Action Items
- Read the US EPA 2016v3 TSD sections on the non-EGU point sector (note that nonegu point and ptnonipm are used interchangeably)
- Section 4.2/4.2.1: general background on projection approach and CoST
- Section 4.2.2: closure methods (SMOKE CLOSURE packet)
- Section 4.2.3 intro: summary of projection methods (SMOKE PROJECTION packet)
- Section 4.2.3.6: non-EGU point methods/details
- Section 4.2.4: summary and descriptions of controls applied to non-EGU point (SMOKE CONTROLS packet)
2022 Inventory Approach
Proposed approach for calculating 2022 emissions for the non-EGU point sector.
- Use all data submitted for 2022 by SLTs
- Gapfill with data submitted for 2021 by SLTs, minus closures
- Gapfill with data submitted for 2020 NEI by STLs, minus closures
- Do not apply projection or control information to the 2020 or 2021 data, use as is
Summary of EPA Projection Methods
Basic EPA projection methodology
- Apply closures to base year data
- Add projection information from EIS
- Add federal control programs
- Add state/local control programs
Details of the EPA methods
- See section 4.2.3.6 in the 2016v3 TSD for non-EGU point projection methods
- See section 4.2.4 for control methods
- For the 2016v3 platform, 2023 non-EGU point was set to 2019 EIS and state submitted point source data minus plant closures that were known to occur between 2019 and 2023
- 2026 emissions were then projected from the 2023 emissions
- Start with a base year (e.g., 2020 or 2021)
- What will this be for the 2022 EMP?
- Remove known closures from the inventory (based on EIS and state-submitted data)
- Q: Where can we find the most recent CLOSURE packet?
- Apply projection factors from AEO; MARAMA provides their own projections
- For the 2016v3 inventory projections are based on 2022 regional industrial source energy consumption (e.g., AEO, 2022)
- See Table 4-14 in the 2016v3 TSD for the list of AEO tables of projection information
- Projection factors (2026 energy/2023 energy) capped at 1.3; no floor for contraction of emissions
- Q: What is the mapping between the AEO energy use tables and SCCs or NAICs?
- Apply controls for national rules: RICE NSPS, natural gas turbine NSPS, process heaters NSPS, boiler MACT, etc.
What's in the nonEGU Point Sector
Table of Documents
| File Name | Date | Version | File |
| Summary of Proposed Emissions Projection Methods by Source Category | 22 Nov 2023 | V.1 | |
| Sector SCC Summaries | 22 Nov 2023 | V.1 |