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Nonpoint Projections Task Force

Call Notes

November 20, 2023


  • 2022 inventory
    • Discuss methods to calculate 2022 emissions for this sector
  • Projection methods and data
    • Review US EPA methods for projection non-EGU point sources
    • Orient to where to access data used in projecting this sector
  • Next call in December
    • Compare MARAMA and US EPA methods
    • Review data for the 2022 EMP: closures, projections (which version of AEO?), controls

Action Items

  • Read the US EPA 2016v3 TSD sections on the non-EGU point sector (note that nonegu point and ptnonipm are used interchangeably)
    • Section 4.2/4.2.1: general background on projection approach and CoST
    • Section 4.2.2: closure methods (SMOKE CLOSURE packet)
    • Section 4.2.3 intro: summary of projection methods (SMOKE PROJECTION packet)
    • Section non-EGU point methods/details
    • Section 4.2.4: summary and descriptions of controls applied to non-EGU point (SMOKE CONTROLS packet)

2022 Inventory Approach

Proposed approach for calculating 2022 emissions for the non-EGU point sector.

  1. Use all data submitted for 2022 by SLTs
  2. Gapfill with data submitted for 2021 by SLTs, minus closures
  3. Gapfill with data submitted for 2020 NEI by STLs, minus closures
  4. Do not apply projection or control information to the 2020 or 2021 data, use as is

Summary of EPA Projection Methods

Basic EPA projection methodology

  1. Apply closures to base year data
  2. Add projection information from EIS
  3. Add federal control programs
  4. Add state/local control programs

Details of the EPA methods

  • See section in the 2016v3 TSD for non-EGU point projection methods
    • See section 4.2.4 for control methods
    • For the 2016v3 platform, 2023 non-EGU point was set to 2019 EIS and state submitted point source data minus plant closures that were known to occur between 2019 and 2023
    • 2026 emissions were then projected from the 2023 emissions
  • Start with a base year (e.g., 2020 or 2021)
    • What will this be for the 2022 EMP?
  • Remove known closures from the inventory (based on EIS and state-submitted data)
    • Q: Where can we find the most recent CLOSURE packet?
  • Apply projection factors from AEO; MARAMA provides their own projections
    • For the 2016v3 inventory projections are based on 2022 regional industrial source energy consumption (e.g., AEO, 2022)
    • See Table 4-14 in the 2016v3 TSD for the list of AEO tables of projection information
    • Projection factors (2026 energy/2023 energy) capped at 1.3; no floor for contraction of emissions
    • Q: What is the mapping between the AEO energy use tables and SCCs or NAICs?
  • Apply controls for national rules: RICE NSPS, natural gas turbine NSPS, process heaters NSPS, boiler MACT, etc.

What's in the nonEGU Point Sector