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Nonpoint Projections Task Force


Andy Bollman (NCDEQ) and Lindsay Dayton (EPA)


  • 20 Nov 2023 (3:00-4:00pm EST): Kickoff Meeting
    • Proposed Emission Projection Methods Comments - Provide by 4 December 2023
  • 7 Dec 2023 (10:00-11:00am EST): NP Projections Meeting #2
  • Jan 2024: NP Projections Meeting #3 (TBD)

Call Notes

November 20, 2023

Agenda with Notes

  • Introductions
  • Timeline Goals
    • Have final review/decisions for 2020 to 2022 recommended projection methods by end of December or early January
    • Focus on analytical years from 2022 on afterwards in the beginning of 2024
  • Discuss the Summary of Proposed Emission Projection Methods by Source Category table (see 'Table of Documents' at bottom of page)
  • Discuss timeline for next meeting
    • Next meeting will occur before the end of the year after the Work Group's overall meeting on 6 December 2023
    • We will discuss comments on the Summary of Proposed Emission Projection Methods in the next meeting

Action Items

  • Go through the Proposed Emission Projection Methods table and do the following in a copy of your own in Yellow:
    • Rank the source categories by priority with 1 being the highest and 3 being the lowest
    • Comment "Yes" to source categories you believe have potentially significant COVID impacts - or remove any existing "Yes" identifier if there's no potentially significant impacts
    • Provide comments on recommended methods/data to develop the 2022 emissions and any additional input on the above entries
  • For reference, the summaries of the methods used to adjust historical years reflect the following previous modeling platforms:
    • 2016v1 – methods that were generally used to grow 2014 emissions to 2016 (see column H)
    • 2016v3 – methods that were generally used to back-cast 2017 emissions to 2016 (see columns I thru K)
    • 2019 – methods that were generally used to grow 2017 emissions to 2019 (see columns M thru O)

December 07, 2023

Agenda with Notes
  • Recap of previous meeting
    • Brief explanation of fields for methods, prioritization, COVID implications, and comments
  • Discuss comments made on the categorization/methodology of Sectors and their Source Categories
    • We reviewed which source categories should be prioritized, may have substantial COVID impacts, and how the group should approach each projection method
  • Next meeting info
    • A meeting will be scheduled for January 2024

Action Items

  • Continue looking through the emissions projection methods and send comments if any arise
    • Co-chairs will consolidate and summarize comments and the discussion in a file for the task force to view
  • Respond to a poll to plan the next date/time for the next meeting once sent out later

Table of Documents

File Name Date Version File Attachment
Summary of Proposed Emissions Projection Methods by Source Category22 Nov 2023V.1File
Sector SCC Summaries22 Nov 2023V.1File
2022 NP Proposed Projections22 Nov 2023V.12022 NP Proposed ProjectionsDownload File
2022EMP_NP_Summary of Proposed Emission Projection Methods by Source Category_2023Nov23