Nonpoint Projections Task Force

Co-Leads

Andy Bollman (NCDEQ) and Lindsay Dayton (EPA)

Schedule

• 20 Nov 2023 (3:00-4:00pm EST): Kickoff Meeting
• Proposed Emission Projection Methods Comments - Provide by 4 December 2023
• 7 Dec 2023 (10:00-11:00am EST): NP Projections Meeting

Call Notes

November 20, 2023

Agenda with Notes

• 2022Introductions
• Timeline inventoryGoals
• Have Discussfinal review/decisions for 2020 to 2022 recommended projection methods toby calculateend of December or early January
• Focus on analytical years from 2022 emissionson forafterwards thisin sectorthe beginning of 2024
• Discuss the Summary of Proposed Emission Projection methodsMethods andby dataSource Category table (see 'Table of Documents' at bottom of page)
• Discuss timeline for next meeting
• Next Reviewmeeting USwill EPAoccur methodsbefore forthe projectionend non-EGUof pointthe sourcesyear after the Work Group's overall meeting on 6 December 2023
• We Orientwill todiscuss wherecomments toon accessthe dataSummary usedof Proposed Emission Projection Methods in projecting this sector
• Next call in December
• Compare MARAMA and US EPA methods
• Review data for the 2022next EMP: closures, projections (which version of AEO?), controlsmeeting

Action Items

• Go Readthrough the USProposed EPAEmission 2016v3Projection TSDMethods sectionstable and do the following in a copy of your own in Yellow:
• Rank the source categories by priority with 1 being the highest and 3 being the lowest
• Comment "Yes" to source categories you believe have potentially significant COVID impacts - or remove any existing "Yes" identifier if there's no potentially significant impacts
• Provide comments on recommended methods/data to develop the 2022 emissions and any additional input on the non-EGUabove pointentries
• For sectorreference, (notethe thatsummaries noneguof pointthe and ptnonipm aremethods used interchangeably)to adjust historical years reflect the following previous modeling platforms:
• 2016v1 Section– 4.2/4.2.1:methods generalthat backgroundwere ongenerally projectionused approachto andgrow CoST2014 emissions to 2016 (see column H)
• 2016v3 Section 4.2.2: closure– methods (SMOKEthat CLOSUREwere packet)generally used to back-cast 2017 emissions to 2016 (see columns I thru K)
• 2019 Section 4.2.3 intro: summary of projection– methods (SMOKEthat PROJECTIONwere packet)
• generally Section 4.2.3.6: non-EGU point methods/details
• Section 4.2.4: summary and descriptions of controls appliedused to non-EGUgrow point2017 (SMOKEemissions CONTROLSto packet)2019 (see columns M thru O)

2022 Inventory Approach

Proposed approach for calculating 2022 emissions for the non-EGUNonpoint point sector.

1. Use all data submitted for 2022 by SLTs
2. Gapfill with data submitted for 2021 by SLTs, minus closures
3. Gapfill with data submitted for 2020 NEI by STLs, minus closures
4. Do not apply projection or control information to the 2020 or 2021 data, use as is

sector:

Summary of EPA Projection Methods

Basic EPA projection methodology

1. Apply closures to base year data
2. Add projection information from EIS
3. Add federal control programs
4. Add state/local control programs

Details of the EPA methods

• See section 4.2.3.6 in the 2016v3 TSD for non-EGU point projection methods
• See section 4.2.4 for control methods
• For the 2016v3 platform, 2023 non-EGU point was set to 2019 EIS and state submitted point source data minus plant closures that were known to occur between 2019 and 2023
• 2026 emissions were then projected from the 2023 emissions
• Start with a base year (e.g., 2020 or 2021)
• What will this be for the 2022 EMP?
• Remove known closures from the inventory (based on EIS and state-submitted data)
• Q: Where can we find the most recent CLOSURE packet?
• Apply projection factors from AEO; MARAMA provides their own projections
• For the 2016v3 inventory projections are based on 2022 regional industrial source energy consumption (e.g., AEO, 2022)
• See Table 4-14 in the 2016v3 TSD for the list of AEO tables of projection information
• Projection factors (2026 energy/2023 energy) capped at 1.3; no floor for contraction of emissions
• Q: What is the mapping between the AEO energy use tables and SCCs or NAICs?
• Apply controls for national rules: RICE NSPS, natural gas turbine NSPS, process heaters NSPS, boiler MACT, etc.

What's in the nonEGU Point Sector

• Spreadsheet of 2016v3 nonEGU Point SCCs

Table of Documents

File Name	Date	Version	File Attachment^
Summary of Proposed Emissions Projection Methods by Source Category	22 Nov 2023	V.1
Sector SCC Summaries	22 Nov 2023	V.1

^Attachments will be added soon