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3SAQS Sensitivity Modeling Plan

3SAQS CAMx Sensitivity Modeling Plan

This memo presents the sensitivity simulations to be completed under the Three-State Air Quality Study (3SAQS) Pilot Project cooperative agreement. These simulations are covered under Task 2013-7 (Air Quality Modeling and Analysis) of the existing project scope. We are proposing these simulations to gain additional insight into the 3SAQS modeling platforms with respect to boundary conditions, background air quality estimates, and oil and gas emissions impacts on local and regional air quality. These simulations will be conducted through the end of the current period of performance, which ends April 15, 2015.

We first present descriptions of the different scenarios and then a table recommending the order of priority for the simulations.


Sensitivity 1: GEOS-Chem Boundary Conditions

Objective: Use the 3SAQS 2011 version A CAMx modeling platform to test the impacts of using GEOS-Chem Initial and Boundary Conditions (ICBC).

Approach: Replace the 2011 MOZART ICBC data with GEOS-Chem data obtained from EPA. Prepare the GEOS-Chem global model results for input to the 3SAQS 2011 CAMx modeling platform. In the preparation of the GEOS-Chem BCs, include tracer species for ozone and dust. Run CAMx for the entire year of 2011 on the three two-way nested (36/12/4-km) modeling domains. Conduct a full model performance evaluation of the CAMx results using GEOS-Chem ICBCs and compare these results to the 3SAQS CAMx simulation that used MOZART BCs. Include analysis of the BC ozone and dust tracers on the 3SAQS 4-km modeling domain. Analyses will also include comparisons of the GEOS-Chem and MOZART vertical profiles of ozone at the boundary and key sites (such as Boulder, CO) that are impacted by long-range transport. If the model performance is improved by using GEOS-Chem, we will consider adopting GEOS-Chem boundary conditions for subsequent regional modeling runs.

Simulation ID: 3SAQS_CAMx_sens11GCBC

Sensitivity 2: US Background Air Quality with MOZART BCs

Objective: Use the 3SAQS 2011 version A CAMx modeling platform to estimate US background air quality with MOZART boundary conditions.

Approach: Zero out all U.S. anthropogenic emissions in the 3SAQS Base 2011 version A modeling platform. The list of emissions sectors that will remain in the background simulation include: •       All Canada and Mexico anthropogenic sources •       Biogenic •       Windblown Dust •       Lightning •       Seasalt •       Wildfires (exclude agricultural and prescribed burn fires)

Run CAMx for the entire year of 2011 on the outer two-way nested (36/12-km) modeling domains. Calculate the domain-wide and subdomain background ozone concentrations during the ozone season. Calculate differences against the 3SAQS 2011 CAMx base simulation to estimate local vs. transported ozone.

Simulation ID: 3SAQS_CAMx_sens11USBG_wMZ

Sensitivity 3: Oil & Gas VOC sensitivity

Objective: Adjust the 3SAQS basin O&G VOC inventory using factors reported in the literature.

Approach: Conduct a literature review for emissions estimates and scaling factor by 3SAQS O&G basin. Scale the 3SAQS 2011 O&G VOC and methane inventories using the factors reported in the literature. Use the adjusted inventory in an ozone season CAMx simulation for the three two-way nested (36/12/4-km) 3SAQS modeling domains. The simulation will be based on the 3SAQS_CAMx_Base11a simulation, which used MOZART boundary conditions. Compare the results of the O&G VOC sensitivity to the reference simulation and observations.

Simulation ID: 3SAQS_CAMx_sens11OGVOC

Sensitivity 4: Winter Ozone Formation

Objective: Conduct emissions and CAMx configuration sensitivity simulations and evaluate the changes in model performance for estimating winter ozone events

Approach: Combine the result of Sensitivity 3 with changes to parameters affecting dynamics and chemistry in CAMx. Model parameters that we will explore in this sensitivity include VOC and NOx emissions magnitudes, VOC speciation, vertical diffusivity, snow cover, and surface albedo. The sensitivity(s) will target limited time periods and spatial domains that focus on winter ozone formation in the three-state region.

Simulation ID: 3SAQS_CAMx_sens11WinOG[n]; where n = sensitivity #

Cost Estimate: $10,000

Sensitivity 5: Ammonia Emissions Sensitivity

Objective: Adjust the temporal distribution and mass emissions rates of key ammonia emission sources and study the impact on model performance

Approach: Work with the NPS Air Resources Division to design emissions sensitivities and evaluation procedures to assess and improve the performance of simulating ammonia (NH3) concentrations and deposition in the Three State study area. Potential evaluation improvements could involve integrating TES satellite retrievals and AMoN surface observations into the suite of 3SAQS model performance evaluation products. We may also consider adding NH3 emissions tracers from different sources, such as livestock, fertilizer, mobile, fires, and industrial sources. While a model inversion study is beyond the scope of this task, constraints on the emissions magnitudes could use published data on the regional underestimation of ammonia emissions. Finally, we will explore adding missing sources of NH3, such as a bidirectional flux from agricultural sources.

Simulation ID: 3SAQS_CAMx_sens11NH3

Optional Sensitivity: US Background Air Quality with GEOS-Chem BCs

Objective: Use the 3SAQS 2011 version A CAMx modeling platform to estimate US background air quality with GEOS-Chem boundary conditions.

Approach: We will only run this simulation if Sensitivity 1 shows large differences in the CAMx results between the MOZART and GEOS-Chem BCs. We will use the same approach as Sensitivity 2 except replace the MOZART BCs with GEOS-Chem BCs. Compare the background air quality estimates between this simulation and Sensitivity 2.

Simulation ID: 3SAQS_CAMx_sens11USBG_wGC