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2022 EMP Modeling Workgroup

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2022 Emissions Modeling Platform Wiki Main Page

Background

Coordinators: Alison Eyth (US EPA), Mark Janssen (LADCO), and Byeong-Uk Kim (GA EPD)

The 2022 EMP modeling workgroup will review ancillary data (e.g., spatial surrogates, temporal profiles, and speciation profiles) and the information for "packaging" such as scripts for the 2022 Emissions Modeling Platform.

Kickoff Meeting - April 18, 2024

Agenda

Note

Mark Janssen went over the scope of tasks that the group volunteered for: speciation profiles, spatial surrogates, and temporal profiles.

Anyone have questions about review products should contact Byeong (Byeong.Kim@dnr.ga.gov) and Mark (janssen@ladco.org).

There were some questions about:

(1) NOx speciation for EGUs - Christine clarified that HONO is a constant 0.8% of NOx for sources where we generate it (mobile sources). NO/NO2 is generally a constant 90/10 split except for onroad, where it is calculated within MOVES and varies somewhat like 1.

(2) Time zone and day light saving time - Mark explained that temporal profile plots show data in local daylight saving times. Byeong asked where to find time zone and day light saving time information. Christine responded that time zones are set in the COSTCY file input to SMOKE, and a single county can only be a single time zone. Day light saving start/end date information may be embedded in SMOKE source codes. Byeong requested information about where to find it exactly. Christine will follow up.

(3) RWC spatial surrogates - Alison noted that population is not used for spatial surrogates for RWC while Mark's plots show that it is. Mark and Christine will follow up.

The next meeting is scheduled for 2-3 PM EDT on May 3 (Friday).


Update (4/18/2024)

Determination of daylight saving time in SMOKE:

https://cmascenter.org/ioapi/documentation/all_versions/html/ISDSTIME.html

Note that the daylight-saving ending date in SMOKE may not be accurate after 2007.


Update (4/29/2024)

2021 ancillary data posted:
https://gaftp.epa.gov/Air/emismod/2021/ancillary_data/

Things to follow up: A few xref updates will be made once the point file is finalized.

Some profiles not included here that are in the 2020 platform.

EPA will start working on the 2022 ancillary data soon – probably late May.

2nd Meeting - May 3, 2024

Agenda

  • The group discussed Georgia EPD’s preliminary questions/comments.

Note

  • Monthly profile for airport will not be the 2020 profile shown. It will be 2022, Alison is working on providing some examples of what will be used.
  • Monthly profiles are not directly translated to monthly totals, but they are really for emissions/day in each month so if one month has more days than another. A flat profile in these cases does not mean total emissions are the same each month, but that the average daily emissions is the same (so if more days in a month, more emissions). The SMOKE doesn’t treat each month with same number of days, e.g., Feb has 28 days instead of 30 days. Instead, they treat the average daily emissions are same across each month if the temporal profile is flat.
  • Question was asked to confirm that temporal profile is same for each VOC species, and it was clarified yes. Basically, we don’t have temporal profile for each individual VOC species. All temporal profiles which are applied to VOC (or PM2.5) are applied to all individual VOC (PM2.5) species equally for a particular source.
  • A question was asked about cross reference along with profile ID codes. Mark used whatever profile documents provided in a script without checking the X-reference files. Therefore, he won’t provide X-reference in the plots because he doesn’t use any X-reference.
  • The group discussed Stage 1 at Gasoline Stations about temperature dependence and decided worth a revisit that there could be variations in profile based on temperature. However, for underground storage tanks would be fine with flat as is. About Storage Bulk Terminals, the group was not sure, and there were no comments about temperature dependence.
  • Composting can adjust especially summer vs. winter in places like Midwest for sure, but these are small source. Therefore, the group will not spend a lot of time on it but will visit it for V2.
  • Natural Gas residential monthly looks too low during summer. Natural gas residential includes water heating, cooking, maybe washer/dryer, likely dominated by heating. The group was not sure about separate furnace. There could be furnace available if states want to look/analyze it. However, the group decided to keep this source aggregated.
  • Alison mentioned/clarified that the “total” in the SCC description refers to “rest of” in reality.
  • There was discussion about documentation for each temporal profile. It is a neat thought and would be nice. However, due to limited resources, the group/EPA can’t do it for every profile made. It may be a good intern job. However, Alison mentioned no more profiles referencing 2011 and said that she had no attention to Canada profiles.
  • Unpaved roads, Alison asked about a surrogate for profile (current profile showed flat Monday-Thursday, that looks outdated with rise Fri to weekend and considering a replacement) like looking at rural unrestricted (and vehicle types and day of week, maybe) and, it was agreed that rural unrestricted is the best method.
  • The group noted that some blank areas exist in files for monthly/daily profiles. Those might reflect profiles derived outside SMOKE.
  • EPA clarified that VCP profiles is derived from the following paper “https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.0c05467”. However, there is no Year-to-Month or Week-to-Day profiles. Same source was used for all VCP_* diurnal profiles.
  • Mark suggested that the group compile all reviewer’s comments and corresponding answers in a document. In the future, users can refer to that document to check if any questions has been answered before.
  • Profile codes are reused across different types of profiles (hourly, weekly, monthly). Canada provided their own temporal profiles (and xrefs) to use with their data. Many of their profiles match ours exactly, including the profile code 7 (hourly, weekly, and monthly). The Canadian profiles are not relevant to this exercise.
  • Alison suggested that we should start fresh with new temporal profile dataset names for this platform (i.e. drop “2011 platform” from their names).
  • For paved and unpaved road dust, we may be able to use averages of the profiles we use for SMOKE-MOVES.
  • It was suggested to reach out OTAQ if Stage 1 and Underground tank emissions profiles are dependent on temperature.
  • Mark suggested that agencies to submit their comments by May 21.
  • The next meeting will be 11 AM EDT on May 23 (Thursday).

Questions/Comments via emails

  • There was a question about the status of data that were used for graphics. Alison clarified that some profiles would change for 2022 like those dependent on met. data. Otherwise, she does not expect changes from the 2021 profiles that are uploaded here: https://gaftp.epa.gov/Air/emismod/2021/ancillary_data/

  • There was a comment on the monthly profiles for the airport sector. At least in the Northeast, the current profiles are showing a distinct COVID signature. The commenter is hoping these will be updated for the 2022 platform.

3rd Meeting - May 23, 2024

Agenda
  • Utah DAQ's Comments
  • LADCO's Comments
  • Wisconsin's Comments on Snowmobiles
  • Next Call

Note

  • Multiple members (UT, GA, and NY) asked questions about airport profiles. Alison confirmed that the 2022 EMP will use state-level profiles derived from the 2022 data.
  • Lexie at Utah DAQ mentioned that Utah DAQ has to make a “fake SCC” to split out the gas usage of home heating, water heating, and gas dryers. Alison responded that it is more related to inventory issues but will bring it up to the NEI team. Mark at LADCO supported the idea of splitting different gas usage for home.
  • Lexie asked question about why composting profiles for Month-to-Year is flat. Mark also mentioned that profiles for compositing should have more emissions in warner months.
  • Lexie could not see a Month-to-Year profile for snowmobiles. Mark and Alison explained that it is because monthly data are in the FF10 file. Lexie noted that a hot spot of pleasure craft emissions at the Great Salt Lake. She explained that the Great Salt Lake is not a place that people use their boats. Utah DAQ considers how to refine the inventory to remove these emissions from the Great Salt Lake because the emissions are currently spread over the whole lake although there are not many pleasure craft on the GLs.
  • Mark noted that monthly profiles for the paved road fugitives (SCC: 2294000000) and gas service stations should look more like the VMT profile. Mark explained that ag tilling is a spring and fall activity in Midwest while the existing profile has it peak in summer. He also mentioned that the day of week profile shouldn’t have weekend drop off.
  • Mark suggested that the profile for mining and quarrying shouldn’t peak in summer.
  • Mark provided a link for monthly residential natural gas usage data by state (https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_cons_sum_dcu_SWI_m.htm). He noted that the usage in Jan is 3x that in July. He suggested that different states have different profiles in this way due to different meteorology. Mark mentioned that snowblowers shouldn’t have a peak on weekends. Mark mentioned that the hourly profile for adhesives doesn’t make sense to them and thought that it should be smoother. Likewise, he suggested that other solvents profiles be smoother too.
  • Karl at EPA explained that these hourly profiles for solvents were derived from https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.0c05467.
  • Byeong proposed that temporal allocation of VOC species needs to be done after speciation is done to properly account for different volatility of VOC species in each SCC in temporal allocation processes. However, he also noted that it will require a lot of efforts and may not be possible to do it in any near future. Karl agreed.
  • Mark mentioned that pesticides emissions should not be in frozen months although he recognized that it would vary by state.
  • Mark mentioned that no paving is done in winter months up north when it is cold/frozen.
  • Mark noted that misc. metal can coating has a strange hourly profile with 0 allocations for some hours.
  • Mark had a question about profiles for RWC fireplaces. Alison explained that profiles are from the MARAMA study.
  • Mark explained that land clearing and open burning are done more in spring and fall than flat all year. He also mentioned that open burning of household waste is illegal for some counties. Therefore, no emissions should be allotted in those counties.
  • Mark mentioned that most silage is frozen in winter and is trying to figure out a better profile, maybe for V2. Alison explained that she discussed the topic with Tesh. EPA used same profiles as dairy livestock emissions and is county specific. There is a process in the Midwest that happens in May and then October (e.g., wheat and corn). It will ferment a bit into the winter. The bags used in Midwest hold VOCs in them and is only released when bag is opened for feed.
  • The group discussed the next steps. Byeong, Mark, and Lexie can collate comments into a workbook; then, Alison needs to get responses to them. For nonroad, Alison will consider how to improve for v2. Byeong will send a temporal allocation example through email.
  • Mark Suggested that temporal profile analysis plots be made after hourly emissions are developed. The current analysis plot does not contain data for emissions that will be generated with air quality modeling. An example sector is NH3 emissions from fertilizer application.
  • EPA plans to run SMOKE modeling for the 36-km domain by the end of June.
  • Mark, Byeong, and Lexie will work on a compiled comment document that is in the format of the Excel spreadsheet by May 30.
  • Alison will address comments by June 7.
  • The next meeting will be 11 AM EDT on June 7 (Friday).
  • Chris at WI gave a presentation about snowmobile emissions. For WI, 50% of VOC nonroad are from recreational plus 20% from pleasure craft and 20% from lawn and garden. It should be similar for other northern Midwest states (MI, MN). He found snowmobiles were 43% of nonroad VOC emissions in WI. During winter, more VOC emissions are from snowmobiles than all onroad. He noted that allocation of snowmobiles to county is inverse to population but area of county is not considered. There are spikes in counties with small areas and low populations. Large counties that should have more emissions do not. For example, Douglas should have more activity and more land for snowmobiles than Florence, but Florence has higher emissions; Marathon county has a lot of place for snowmobiles but low emissions, and Pepin has less area for snow mobiles but high emissions. He noted that allocation is skewed towards low population. He suggested that the amount of rural land area by county be used instead. He thought the VOC emissions of snowmobiles may be overestimated. He will check MOVES5 beta for similar properties. He thinks that states should consider submitting their own data. These may not be addressed in V1. He suggested that these need to be addressed for V2.

4th Meeting - June 7, 2024

Agenda
  • Reviewed US EPA's initial responses (Alison)
  • Next Call

Note

5th Meeting - August 5, 2024

Agenda
  • "Packaging" the 2022 EMP
  • Next Call

Note

  • Alison went over how US EPA develops the "packaging" part of the 2022 EMP. Alison emphasized that the current available version of 2022 EMP is a "preliminary" version. The final packaged version is expected to be available by the end of September.
  • Alison and Chirstine emphasized that SMOKE v5.1 should be used for the 2022 EMP.
  • Mark shared his experience on the current preliminary version and the 2016 EMP. Mark asked clarification questions about some Python and Java scripts related to EPA's EMF. Alison and Christine plan to put some notes about what files are specifically related to EPA's EMF in "INFO" text files in the 2022 EMP repository.
  • Alison asked workgroup members to share user inputs. Alison prefers one complied input document.
  • Byeong asked workgroup members to send their comments/inputs to him by September 6. Mark and Byeong will work on the final compiled version of the input document ad send it to Alison by September 13. The workgroup meets again to go over inputs with Alison.
  • The next meeting for the "packaging" will be 1 PM EDT on September 16 (Monday).