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Industrial Point Projection Task Force
Summary of EPA Projection Methods
- See section 4.2.3.6 in the 2016v3 TSD for non-EGU point projection methods
- See section 4.2.4 for control methods
- For the 2016v3 platform, 2023 non-EGU point was set to 2019 EIS and state submitted point source data minus plant closures that were known to occur between 2019 and 2023
- 2026 emissions were then projected from the 2023 emissions
- Start with a base year (e.g., 2020 or 2021)
- What will this be for the 2022 EMP?
- Remove known closures from the inventory (based on EIS and state-submitted data)
- Q: Where can we find the most recent CLOSURE packet?
- Apply projection factors from AEO; MARAMA provides their own projections
- For the 2016v3 inventory projections are based on 2022 regional industrial source energy consumption (e.g., AEO, 2022)
- See Table 4-14 in the 2016v3 TSD for the list of AEO tables of projection information
- Projection factors (2026 energy/2023 energy) capped at 1.3; no floor for contraction of emissions
- Q: What is the mapping between the AEO energy use tables and SCCs or NAICs?
- Apply controls for national rules: RICE NSPS, natural gas turbine NSPS, process heaters NSPS, boiler MACT, etc.
What's in the nonEGU Point Sector