Winter Ozone AQ Modeling Results

The WAQS modeling team conducted a series of CAMx sensitivity simulations with the objective of improving the ability of the model to reproduce high wintertime ozone concentrations related to localized meteorological conditions and oil and gas emissions sources.

Emissions Adjustments

O&G Basin Emission Adjustment Factors

Basin	NOx	VOC	CH4	Notes	Reference
Denver-Julesberg		>2.0			Petron et al., 2012
Piceance
North San Juan
South San Juan
Paradox
Uintah	0.25	1.6	4.4	Uintah and Duchesne Counties	Karion et al., 2013; Ahmadov et al., 2015
Southwest Wyoming
Big Horn
Wind River
Powder River
Great Plains
Williston

3SAQS Sensitivity will use 2.0x VOC and 0.5x NOx across the board for area and point O&G sectors.

Upper Green River Basin CAMx Analysis

WYDEQ Hourly VOC Sites

Monthly Average Concentrations

Big Piney	VOC	CH4
Boulder	VOC	CH4	Winter VOC	Winter CH4	Winter NO2	Hourly CH4	Hourly NO2
Gillette	VOC	CH4
Pavilion	VOC	CH4	Winter VOC	Winter CH4	Winter NO2
Wamsutter	VOC	CH4

Timeseries Analysis of CAMx Base11a O3

Colorado

Utah

Uintah Basin Winter Ozone Study
These sites only measured ozone and meteorology parameters

Site	Lat, Long, Elev	2011 Episode Dates	1-hr O3 Concentrations	Time-Height
Altamount	40.3603, -110.2858, 1949.8056	Feb 14	>85 ppb	WRF-Winter
		Mar 2-3	>85 ppb	WRF-Winter
Cedarview	40.383524, -110.072563, 1692.2496	Jan 7-8	>80 ppb
		Jan 25-31	>90 ppb
		Feb 12-16	>135 ppb	WRF-Winter
		Feb 23-24	>100 ppb
		Mar 1-3	>90 ppb	WRF-Winter
Dinosaur	40.4371, -109.3047, 1462.7352	Jan 6-9	>80 ppb
		Feb 12-16	>110 ppb	WRF-Winter
Duchesne	40.1615, -110.4011, 1682.496	Jan 29-30	>90 ppb
		Feb 12-16	>120 ppb	WRF-Winter
Horse Pool	40.1437, -109.4672, 1569.4152	Jan 6-8	>100 ppb
		Jan 24-31	>95 ppb
		Feb 12-16	>130 ppb	WRF-Winter
		Feb 23-25	>120 ppb
		Mar 1-4	>115 ppb	WRF-Winter
Jensen	40.3671, -109.3522, 1450.848	Feb 12-16	>100 ppb	WRF-Winter
		Feb 23-24	>80 ppb
		Mar 1-2	>80 ppb	WRF-Winter
Lapoint	40.404, -109.8157, 1673.9616	Jan 6-8	>90 ppb
		Jan 27-31	>80 ppb
		Feb 12-16	>120 ppb
		Feb 22-24	>100 ppb
		Mar 1-3	>85 ppb
Ouray	40.054768, -109.688001, 1463.9544	Jan 6-9	>100 ppb
		Jan 16-17	>95 ppb
		Jan 26-31	>105 ppb
		Feb 11-16	>140 ppb
		Feb 24-25	>120 ppb
		Mar 1-3	>100 ppb
Pariette Draw	40.03460278, -109.8300556, 1466.6976	Feb 11-16	>140 ppb
		Feb 22-25	>120 ppb
		Mar 1-3	>110 ppb
Rabbit Mountain	39.8687, -109.0973, 1878.7872	Jan 16	>85 ppb
		Feb 14-16	>100 ppb
Red Wash	40.1972, -109.3525, 1688.8968	Jan 6-9	>95 ppb
		Jan 26-31	>95 ppb
		Feb 12-15	>135 ppb
		Feb 23-24	>105 ppb
		Mar 1-3	>100 ppb
Roosevelt	40.30073056, -109.9784172, 1544.7264	Jan 6-9	>80 ppb
		Jan 27-31	>100 ppb
		Feb 12-16	>120 ppb	WRF-Winter
		Feb 3-4	>100 ppb
		Mar 1-3	>80 ppb
Vernal	40.443273, -109.560983, 1662.684	Jan 8-9	>85 ppb
		Feb 12-16	>100 ppb	WRF-Winter
		Feb 24	>85 ppb
		Mar 2	>80 ppb

Wyoming

Site	Lat, Long, Elev	2011 Episode Dates	8-hr O3 Concentrations	Obs Y/N
Wyoming Range	42.98, -110.35, 2475	Feb 15	>80 ppb	Y
		Mar 10	>80 ppb
Pinedale	42.92, -109.79, 2388	Mar 1-2	>85 ppb	Y
		Mar 5	>80 ppb
Juel Springs	42.37, -109.56, 2144	Mar 2	>90 ppb	Y
		Mar 12	>85 ppb
		Mar 15	>85 ppb
Daniel	42.79, -110.05, 2173	Mar 10	>80 ppb	Y
Boulder	42.71, -109.75, 2160	Feb 14	>85 ppb	Y
		Mar 1-5	>120 ppb
		Mar 12	>120 ppb
Mobile Trailer	42.68, -109.8, 2143	Feb 14	>80 ppb	Y
		Mar 3	>80 ppb

Monitoring Maps