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Nonpoint Workgroup

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Collaborative Wiki Main Page

Inventory Collaborative Google Drive Link

Nonpoint Workgroup Charge

Members

Co-leads: Caroline Farkas (EPA), Jennifer Snyder (EPA)

Ariel Holway-Jones (Alabama), Vanessa Crandell-Beck (Alaska), Farah Mohammadesmaeili (Arizona), Ryan Templeton (Arizona), Sylvia Vanderspek (California), Alexandra Catena (DC), Shane Cone (Delaware), Byeong-Uk Kim (Georgia), Richard McDonald (Georgia), Marnie Stein (Iowa), Lynn Deahl (Kansas), Walter Simms (Maryland), Ken Santlal (Massachusetts), Tom Shanley (Michigan), Azra Kovacevic (Minnesota), Stacy Allen (Missouri), Judy Rand (New Jersey), Nicholle Worland (New Jersey), John Barnes (New York), Carlos Mancilla (New York), Andy Bollman (North Carolina), Laura Woods (Ohio), Erica Fetty-Davis (Ohio), Mark Houser (Pennsylvania), Michael Ege (Texas), Greg Mortensen (Utah), Collin Smythe (Vermont), Jeff Merrell (Vermont), Thomas Foster (Virginia), Nishanthi Wijekoon (Wisconsin), Jennifer Snyder (EPA), Caroline Farkas (EPA), Brian Keaveny (EPA),

Nonpoint Workgroup Meetings

Held the 4th Monday of the month at 2:00pm Eastern.

September, 26, 2019

Attendees

TBA

Agenda

  • Roll Call
  • v1 Update
    • Overall update
    • Subsector updates
  • Workgroup future
  • Questions

Minutes

  • Overall update:
    • We are still mostly on track to release the v1 platform the first week of October.
    • We are working hard to finalize the projections for each sector and the majority of them are finalized and awaiting a SMOKE run.
    • We are also working hard on documentation so it can be released with the platform, hopefully the first week of October.
  • Subsector updates:
    • Afdust
      • Base Year (2016)
        • Finalized, processed through SMOKE and awaiting other sectors to be merged
        • VMT for road dust was updated to match onroad mobile VMT for v1
      • Projection Years (2023, 2028)
        • Finalized, awaiting a run through SMOKE
        • Not much change from beta, however, we have included projection factors submitted by states
    • Ag
      • Base Year (2016)
        • Finalized, processed through SMOKE and awaiting other sectors to be merged
        • Fertilizer from EPA’s ORD for 2016
        • Livestock emissions updated with 2017NEI emissions, backcasted to 2016 (corrects underpredictions in dairy cows and poultry)
      • Projection Years (2023, 2028)
        • Finalized, awaiting a run through SMOKE
        • No growth for fertilizer
        • Livestock projected using Feb 2019 USDA national projections, except for state-submitted growth factors
    • Nonpoint-Other
      • Base Year (2016)
        • Finalized, processed through SMOKE and awaiting other sectors to be merged
        • Some minor state updates, still has the population-based projections to appropriate subsectors
      • Projection Years (2023, 2028)
        • Nearly finalized, awaiting a discussion about finished fuels (OTAQ)
        • Industrial sources updated to use AEO 2019
        • Minor state-submitted edits from beta
    • RWC
      • Base Year (2016)
        • Finalized, processed through SMOKE and awaiting other sectors to be merged
      • Projection Years (2023, 2028)
        • Finalized, awaiting a run through SMOKE
        • VT, NC submitted updates from beta

  • Workgroup summaries that we created for the Afdust, Ag, and RWC sectors were emailed to the workgroup. We will create a summary for the nonpoint-other sector when it has been finalized and is ready to go through SMOKE.
    • As a reminder, these sectors have been finalized. There is not a requirement or an ask to QA this or to comment on the data, therefore there is no due date.
  • This will probably be the last workgroup call for awhile. If you have thoughts or comments on the workgroup and/or where you would like to see this workgroup go in the future, email the co-leads.

March 25, 2019

Attendees

TBA

Agenda

  • Roll Call
  • Beta Release (2016)
  • 2023/2028 Projections finalized
  • Reviewing beta
  • Date of v1
  • Questions

Minutes

February 25, 2019

Attendees

TBA

Agenda

  • Roll Call
  • Note about 2019 Emissions Inventory Conference
  • Update on Documentation
  • Plots/Maps of 2016 beta
  • Update on 2023/2028
  • Looking forward to v1

Minutes

Note about 2019 Emissions Inventory Conference

Update on Documentation

  • We made a large push to finish documentation by Feb 15
  • The documentation is available on the Google drive
    • Inventory Collaborative Google Drive -> Data Repository -> Documentation
    • For those who do not have access to Google Drive, Caroline emailed out a draft copy for your review

Plots/Maps of 2016 beta

Update on 2023/2028

  • Working to finalize 2023 and 2028 projections and control packets. This includes finalizing:
    • Industrial Sector growth
      • Nearly finished, working on SCCs not covered by updated AEO/NEI crosswalk
    • Control packets being finalized this week
      • Several packets overlap with Oil & Gas sector, so Jeff Vukovich and I are working together to make sure those are finalized
  • Current plan is to have these finalized by the end of February so they can be processed
  • Other sectors finalizing future year projections: EGU, non-EGU point, Oil & Gas, Canadian emissions

Looking Forward to v1

  • Things to think about and talk to Caroline/Jennifer about as we start to make improvements for v1:
    • What else is important for our workgroup to address and finalize for v1?
    • Comments from workgroup after reviewing Beta
    • Additions/Changes for control packets
    • Use SEDs data to grow from 2014 to 2016?
    • Analyze differences in GHG Tool methodology and current beta methods

October 29, 2018

Attendees

TBA

Agenda

  • Roll Call
  • Updates on status of work for 2016 platform (controls and projections)

Minutes

Update on Status of Work

  • Ag livestock - county based 2016 emissions were created using historical 2016 data from USDA. Horses and Goats were not available, those numbers were pulled forward from 2014.
    • Ag Livestock projections will be based on USDA's national projections for available animal types. 2028 growth estimates will be published in Feb 2019, so for now a simple linear growth was used to estimate 2028's growth. This will be updated for v1
  • Human Population-based sectors - Judy Rand updated to 2016; going to use Woods & Poole data that was used previously to project to 2023 & 2028
  • Industrial Sector Growth - 2011 is the first platform that this sector was grown. AEO fuel consumption information was used with NAICS and SCC codes to create a crosswalk and growth factors. Some of the background data that helped to create this has been lost, however we were able to recover some of it. MARAMA also has a worksheet that would allow us to update with AEO 2018 numbers. We plan to continue this work with their help.
  • Boiler MACT - Judy Rand has sent along MARAMA's worksheet. NC is working to update since they have extended compliance dates.
  • Fuel Sulfur Rules - we know this impacts NE states, any other states?
    • Michigan says they will update and send along what they have
  • RICE NESHAP/NSPS - in the process of reviewing this and deciding the best method to update
  • Cellulosic Plants - For 2011, a 2018 inventory was used. AEO 2018 shows essentially no growth for biofuels. Caroline asked the workgroup if there was any issue with continuing with the 2018 inventory and assuming no change. There were no objections.

July 23, 2018

Attendees

TBA

Agenda

  • Roll Call
  • MARAMA Growth and Control Tool Presentation - Susan McCusker
  • AEO 2018 for Projections - Judy Rand
  • Updates on Population Projections and Ag Livestock Projections - Caroline

Minutes

TBA

June 25, 2018

Attendees

MA, VT, NJ, NY, DE, VA, AL, NC, MI, OH, WI, TX, KS, MO, WA, Jennifer Snyder (EPA), Caroline Farkas (EPA), David Cooley (Abt Assoc.)

Agenda

  • Roll Call
  • 2016 Base Status, update
    • Ag Livestock waste
    • Open burning, land clearing debris status update
  • Looking toward projection methods
    • Ag livestock
    • Afdust
    • Population-based sectors
    • What else?

Minutes

2016 Base Status

  • Ag Livestock
    • Was previously suggested to use USDA historical data to update Ag livestock to 2016 (from 2014)
    • USDA historical data gives animal head counts, not emissions
    • Met with Tesh Rao (EPA) and he mentioned that a handful of states submit their own Ag Livestock emissions and animal head counts may or may not be available from that data
    • After discussion, Caroline is going to work with Tesh Rao to get the number of states that submitted their own Ag Livestock emissions. Perhaps if only a few, we could contact those states to get headcounts
  • Open burning, land clearing debris status update
    • David Cooley from Abt Assoc. confirmed that he has the burning ban data and open burning methods that were submitted by several states from this workgroup. They are working on a method that more closely estimates open burning.

Looking toward projection methods

  • Ag livestock
    • Andy Bollman had suggested looking into GHG Projection tool for projection Ag Livestock emissions for future years
    • Caroline is going to be meeting with Tesh Rao and Joe Mangino (EPA) as they are also working on future livestock estimations for 2017 NEI and determine what they have already done, if we can use it and if they are familiar with the GHG projection tool
  • Afdust
    • We heard from several workgroup members about paved/unpaved road growth. The consensus is to grow paved roads as normal, but to set unpaved roads to no growth.
  • Population-based Sectors
    • To build off Judy Rand's work on population activity-based sectors, we need to find a reliable source for population projections
    • Caroline and Jennifer have found information about data sets from Woods & Poole, but they are expensive
    • Caroline and Jennifer are going to contact some EPA groups to see who has worked with this data and if there is a contract for it already
  • What other sectors?
    • The workgroup is interested in looking at AEO 2018 for combustion sources.
    • Andy is going to send Caroline information on AEO

May 21, 2018

Attendees

Andy Bollman (NC), Carlos Mancilla (NY), Collin Smythe (VT), Jayson Prentice (KS), Judy Hayes (AL), Ken Santlal (MA), Laura Woods (OH), Marnie Stein (IA), Michael Ege (TX), MI, Stacy Allen (MO), Nicholle Worland (NJ), Judy Rand (NJ), Nishanthi Wijekoon (WI), OH, Shane Cone (DE), Steve Lachance (MI), Tom Malamakal (WA), Walter Simms (MD), Azra Kovacevic (MN), Byeong-Uk Kim (GA), Jennifer Snyder (EPA), Caroline Farkas (EPA)

Agenda

  • Welcome and Roll Call
  • 2014-2016 Population-based Emissions (Judy Rand)
  • Paved vs. Unpaved Roads Discussion (Caroline Farkas)
  • Nonpoint projections (if time allows)

Minutes/Notes

2014-2016 Population-based Emissions

  • Judy Rand presented the work she has done for this workgroup on updating the population activity based sectors to 2016. (Presentation has been updated to the Google Drive)
  • She reviewed what has been considered so far for getting from NEI2014v2 to a 2016 modeling platform
  • Judy listed the subsectors that use population data as the activity factor
  • The growth factor she used was county 2016 population/2014 population
  • The group discussed whether we should cap growth at 10% from 2014 to 2016
    • Those who spoke up thought growth should not be capped
  • We discussed if there should be negative growth (i.e., a population decrease)
    • Those who spoke up thought that growth should reflect the trends in population, positive or negative. Some know of counties in their state that have seen a reduction in population.
  • Caroline will send an email to the workgroup to make sure the group agrees with this method as a whole
  • The data from Judy is available on the Google Drive. It is divided into 3 files due to file size

Paved vs. Unpaved Roads Discussion

  • Caroline presented slides from the Projecting Emissions Training
  • Fugitive Dust from paved and unpaved roads are projected using onroad VMT from the AEO
  • county projection factor is calculated by future year total county VMT/base year total county VMT
    • This projection factor does not differ between paved and unpaved roads
  • Lee Tooly (EPA) has reviewed the projection process of PM for this subsector
    • She found that the majority of national total VMT occur on paved roads
    • Distribution of unpaved and paved road miles has not varied much over the years
    • Travel over all road types is increasing, but is decreasing over rural roads
      • A question was raised asking whether "rural" always meant "unpaved" or can be both?
        • Caroline said that there are both paved and unpaved roads that are considered rural, and that she plans to look further into this analysis including a county-level data set that Lee found from the NHWA (Table HM-51)
  • NJ says they use no growth for unpaved roads; NC confirmed that they apply no growth for the unpaved roads category; MA doesn't change the projection factor (uses EPA's method)
  • Should we consider using no growth? Will include in email to group mentioned above

Nonpoint Projections

  • Caroline reviewed how Ag NH3 for livestock is projected
  • Andy Bollman (NC) suggested we use historical (2016) data to update the Ag sector for the base year. For the future year he will send Caroline a link to the GHG Projection Tool that has Ag Livestock projections

April 23, 2018

Attendees

NJ, NY, DE, VA, AL, NC, WI, TX, IA, MO, Chris Swab (OR) Caroline Farkas (EPA), Jennifer Snyder (EPA)

Agenda

  • Welcome and Roll Call
  • Wiki site
  • Open Burning Land Clearing Debris Deep Dive
    • Findings Overview
    • Information from other states
    • Request Burn Bans from states
  • Population Growth for specific subsectors
    • Total emissions impacted
    • Sources
  • Nonpoint to Point migration, double counting

Minutes/Notes

  • Slides have been loaded to Google Drive and emailed out to workgroup members

Wiki Site

  • The wiki site went down for a few days. Colorado State got it back up on a slightly different URL. Link was provided to group via email and slides. (If you're reading this here, you found it!)

Open Burning Land Clearing Debris Deep Dive

  • Findings Overview
    • Several members suggested (and provided ideas for) a method revision to Open Burning Land Clearing Debris.
    • Jennifer and Caroline analyzed the emissions and discovered that 8 states submitted their own land clearing debris data (AZ, DE, GA, IL, MD, NC, UT and WA).
      • NJ says that they did as well - maybe with a different SCC? Jennifer going to check on this.
    • On average, EPA estimates (compared to these 8 state submissions) are 25% too high, but the range is large with both over- and under-predictions.
    • We divided the data into instances where EPA's estimates were too low (178 counties) and too high (249 counties) and discovered that of the counties that EPA's estimates were too high, about 1/3 of them had zero emissions reported from the State
      • This could point to not enough data on burning bans or that our "percent urban" threshold is too high for no burning.
  • Information from other States
    • We contacted the 8 states to learn more about their methods and how they differ from EPA's
    • Jennifer compiled a summary of the responses and we are working to compare them to find commonalities and compare to EPA's method.
  • Request Burn Bans from States
    • We are asking States to submit information for 2016 on burning bans of any type and duration (e.g., county-wide, municipal, summer only, etc).

Population Growth for specific subsectors

  • The slides showing candidates for population-based growth and their emissions were incorrect: RWC, residential open burning and residential fuel use are not population based, and there are controls applied to these sectors (including a new woodstove NSPS)
  • Chris has replaced the incorrect slides with a slide showing those sectors (with emissions) that are population based, referencing work done by MARAMA’s contractor for 2011 NEI growth. MARAMA’s population-based sectors include various types of consumer and commercial solvent use, graphic arts, architectural surface coatings, charcoal grilling, some industrial maintenance adhesive and coating categories, and waste disposal including POTWs, TSDFs and cremation.
  • The group considers US Census national county-based 2010-2017 population estimates (available online) appropriate to use for 2014-2016 population growth. An option for 2023 and 2028 projections is extrapolation off of the 2010-2017 Census data.
  • EIA - Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) data may be appropriate to use as a growth surrogate for energy-based sectors; this idea was discussed by the group, however there may not be enough time to complete growth estimates before the Beta deadline.

Nonpoint to Point migration, double counting

  • Steve Potter (CT) brought up this possible issue on the non-EGU Workgroup call
  • Some states, CT included, may have nonpoint sources in 2014v2 NEI that, due to rule changes, are now considered point sources and were submitted with the 2016 submissions.
    • NC mentioned they had a similar situation but in the other direction
  • If States know this is an issue, please send us a list of the sources that need to be removed from nonpoint or point to avoid double counting
    • Andy Bollman asked for an example of the format needed from the States to submit these corrections - Caroline will work on this.

March 26, 2018

Attendees

MA, VT, NY, NJ, DE, DC, VA, NC, GA, AL, OH, TX, KS, IA, MO, Chris Swab (OR) Caroline Farkas (EPA), Jennifer Snyder (EPA)

Agenda

  • Welcome and Roll Call
  • Base Case Discussions
    • Linear growth, 2014 vs. 2016
    • Open burning – land clearing debris
    • Other sectors
  • Review data available
  • Wrap-up

Minutes/Notes

Base Case Discussions

  • Chris Swab spoke about a linear regression analysis he did to help the group decide whether we should use the 2014v2 NEI nonpoint inventory as-is for the base 2016 modeling platform or if we should grow some or all of the sectors to 2016.
  • The group discussed potential sectors that may need to be grown to account for population or meteorology changes.
    • Judy Rand (NJ) suggested looking into the subsectors whose activity data is population-based. This is similar to what MARAMA does and could be a quick change to implement.
    • Ken Santlal (MA) suggested using 2016 EIA growth data for combustion sources since they could change significantly from year to year.
  • Andy Bollman (NC) presented slides on Open Burning of Land Clearing Debris and the difference between EPA's estimation method and the method NC uses.
    • A few states agreed that EPA's method of assuming 100% of debris burned in counties less than 80% urbanized was an overestimation of what most likely is being emitted in their states.
    • A question was asked if EPA could clarify which states submit their own Open Burning Land Clearing Debris data and which use EPA estimates. Jennifer Snyder and Caroline Farkas plan to look into this more before the next meeting.
    • The suggestion was made that perhaps we could reduce, by a certain percentage, the estimated Land Clearing Debris burned, or we could revisit the land-use requirement for burning.
  • Byeong Kim (GA) asked about unpaved road dust and the transport discount. Caroline said she would check with Alison and others about this since she was not clear on how that was calculated.

Review Data Available

  • The group ran out of time on the call but the data Chris discussed on the call is available on the google drive (or by email if you cannot access the drive). The projection packet examples from the 2011 modeling platform are available on EPA's FTP site: ftp://newftp.epa.gov/Air/emismod/2011/v3platform/reports/

  • The slides from this call are also available on the google drive or can be requested via email to Caroline Farkas.

February 26, 2018

Attendees

Caroline Farkas (EPA), Jennifer Snyder (EPA), Chris Swab (OR), Judy Rand (NJ), NY, Alexandra Catena (DC), DE, Mark Houser (PA), Thomas Foster (VA), Richard McDonald (GA), Andy Bollman (NC), Steve Lachance (MI), Azra Kovacevic (MN), Laura Woods (OH), WI, Michael Ege (TX), Marnie Stein (IA)

Agenda

  • Welcome
    • Roll Call
  • Subsector Category Review
    • Emission totals by subsector
    • Subsector Survey Results
  • Review goals of workgroup
  • Volunteering
  • Growth & Controls Review

Minutes/Notes

Subsector Category Review

  • Emission totals by subsector
    • Chris explained and reviewed worksheet showing emission totals by nonpoint subsector, available on the google drive (https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1Ps8GKotVvQVg8GS8gJCkBSvfDdGg_vjK?usp=sharing).
    • Open Burning showed to be a large contributor to CO emissions.
      • Question for modelers: Is CO important in modeling? Should we be looking to improve this subsector?
      • Question for Jennifer/NEI: How does EPA calculate open burning? NC suggests that EPA's estimation is too high.
  • Subsector Survey Results
    • We have heard from a few S/L/Ts about their priorities for subsector improvements to the modeling platform. Chris has compiled these into a chart on the google drive.

Review goals of workgroup

  • Caroline reiterated the goals of the workgroup. This is an effort aimed to allow S/L/Ts to collaborate with EPA on the modeling platform if they feel that they have data or information that could better the base case or projections. This is not a new NEI. This effort is completely voluntary.

Volunteering

  • Chris asked for volunteers to take on a subsector and try to improve it
    • RWC was a topic of conversation. Suggestions that EPA should go back to old methodology. NJ has worked extensively on this.

Growth and Controls

  • Ran out of time but Caroline will send out an email point to growth and control raw data or (as suggested by a few members) projections from an older platform to demonstrate growth/control factors that currently exist.

Action Items

All members: Watch for email from Co-leads with links to data. Review data and decide which subsectors the workgroup should aim to improve.

Next Call: March 26, 2018 at 2pm EST

January 19, 2018

Attendees

Caroline Farkas (EPA), Jennifer Snyder (EPA), Chris Swab (OR), MA, VT, NY, MD, VA, DC, GA, OH, TX, KS, MO, UT, AZ, CA, AK

Agenda

  • Welcome
    • Co-Chair Introductions
    • Roll Call
  • Introduction to overall Collaborative Workgroup effort
  • Introduction to Nonpoint Workgroup
  • Timeline and Milestones
  • Update on 2016a
  • Administrative Items

Minutes/Notes

Introduction to overall Collaborative Workgroup effort

  • 1st time states, tribes, MJOs, and EPA will collaborate to develop a National emissions modeling platform
  • There are approximately 10 workgroups
  • The overarching goal is to develop data files for the 2016 Modeling Platform and projections out to 2023 and 2028 that MJOs, tribes, states, and EPA can modify and augment to address their analysis and planning needs. Examples of uses: Ozone and particulate matter (PM), regional haze modeling.
  • There will be 3 main phases of the effort that Chris will talk more about when he introduces this workgroup’s charge.

Introduction to Nonpoint Workgroup

  • Chris reviewed each section of the Charge, which is currently in draft form.
  • For Table 1:
    • Chris asked for feedback regarding the source categories (Section 6.2, Table 1). Caroline asked interested members to provide top 3 priorities via email. The answers will be compiled and used to edit the Charge. The co-chairs want this workgroup to be a collaborative effort and welcome any suggestions for the charge.
    • Expected pollutants – only CAPs should be considered, however we should also include NH3, especially for Ag-related categories
    • Oil & gas will not be included since this is a separate workgroup

Timeline and Milestones

  • This was covered in Section 3 of the Charge.
    • January 2018: 2016alpha
    • Summer 2018: 2016beta with projections to 2028
    • Early 2019: 2016v1.0 with projections to 2023 and 2028

Update on 2016alpha

  • Jennifer Snyder gave an update on the initial data for the workgroup. We are hoping to have it in hand near the beginning of February.

Administrative Items

  • Recurring Meeting time: 4th Monday of the Month at 2pm EST

Questions/Comments

  • For Table 1, consider including silage.
    • Chris S. will check to see if California has documentation on emissions from silage operations, however Stacy Allen (MO) mentioned that silage ops in the Midwest are much different than those in CA.
  • For Table 1, composting should be included
  • From the NOMAD work, it was determined that the Ag tilling method from Abt has an incorrect number of passes – too many passes for some areas of the country. The group should be sure to follow up on this (Lynn Deahl)
  • Check to be sure that CAFO methodology includes VOC and dust from hooves (Stacy Allen)
  • What types of point sources should be subtracted (reconciled) with the ICI combustion tool data (John Barnes)
    • Chris suggested that this be deferred until a later date after larger issues have been ironed out.
  • For projections, what are the current growth factors used by EPA?
    • Caroline will work to get these to the group
  • How does this project fit in with EPA’s 2017 effort (Walter Simms).
    • One answer is that the 2016 modeling platform is needed for Regional Haze development, work that can’t wait until the 2017 NEI is finalized.
  • 2014 NEI (or modeling platform v.7) CAP emissions group-summed nationally by major category would be helpful in determining which categories should be prioritized
    • Chris S. will compile this and send it out.

Action Items

  • Co-chairs will compile CAP emissions nationally group-summed by major category
  • Co-chairs will work to secure answers to other questions asked during meeting
  • Group members should email co-chairs to provide top 3 priorities (after reading workgroup charge) and indicate if they are interested in helping with the projections subgroup

Next Call: February 26, 2018 at 2pm EST