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Nonpoint Projections Task Force

Co-Leads

Andy Bollman (NCDEQ) and Lindsay Dayton (EPA)

Schedule

  • 20 Nov 2023 (3:00-4:00pm EST): Kickoff Meeting
    • Proposed Emission Projection Methods Comments - Provide by 4 December 2023
  • 7 Dec 2023 (10:00-11:00am EST): NP Projections Meeting #2
  • 22 Jan 2024 (3:00pm-4:00pm EST): NP Projections Meeting #3
  • 1 Mar 2024 (11:00am-12:00pm EST): NP Projections Meeting #4
  • 29 Apr 2024 (4:00pm-5:00pm EST): NP Projections Meeting #5
  • TBA: NP Projections Meeting #6

Call Notes

Meeting 1: November 20, 2023

Agenda with Notes

  • Introductions
  • Timeline Goals
    • Have final review/decisions for 2020 to 2022 recommended projection methods by end of December or early January
    • Focus on analytical years from 2022 on afterwards in the beginning of 2024
  • Discuss the Summary of Proposed Emission Projection Methods by Source Category table (see 'Table of Documents' at bottom of page)
  • Discuss timeline for next meeting
    • Next meeting will occur before the end of the year after the Work Group's overall meeting on 7 December 2023
    • We will discuss comments on the Summary of Proposed Emission Projection Methods in the next meeting

Action Items

  • Go through the Proposed Emission Projection Methods table and do the following in a copy of your own in Yellow:
    • Rank the source categories by priority with 1 being the highest and 3 being the lowest
    • Comment "Yes" to source categories you believe have potentially significant COVID impacts - or remove any existing "Yes" identifier if there's no potentially significant impacts
    • Provide comments on recommended methods/data to develop the 2022 emissions and any additional input on the above entries
  • For reference, the summaries of the methods used to adjust historical years reflect the following previous modeling platforms:
    • 2016v1 – methods that were generally used to grow 2014 emissions to 2016 (see column H)
    • 2016v3 – methods that were generally used to back-cast 2017 emissions to 2016 (see columns I thru K)
    • 2019 – methods that were generally used to grow 2017 emissions to 2019 (see columns M thru O)

Meeting 2: December 07, 2023

Agenda with Notes
  • Recap of previous meeting
    • Brief explanation of fields for methods, prioritization, COVID implications, and comments
  • Discuss comments made on the categorization/methodology of Sectors and their Source Categories
    • We reviewed which source categories should be prioritized, may have substantial COVID impacts, and how the group should approach each projection method
  • Next meeting info
    • A meeting will be scheduled for 22 January 2024

Action Items

  • Continue looking through the emissions projection methods and send comments if any arise
    • Co-chairs will consolidate and summarize comments and the discussion in a file of Proposed Projections for the task force (see 'Table of Documents' at bottom of page)
  • Respond to a poll to plan the next date/time for the next meeting once doodle poll is sent out

Meeting 3: January 22, 2024

Agenda with Notes
  • Recap of previous meeting
  • Discussion to begin solidifying the proposed projections
    • A draft of the final 2020-2022 Nonpoint Projection Methods will be created by co-leads based on the discussion (see 'Table of Documents' at bottom of page)
  • Next meeting info
    • A meeting will be scheduled for 1 March 2024

Action Items

  • Review the final draft of the 2020-2022 Nonpoint Projection Methods once the co-leads have completed it
  • Brainstorm ideas of approaching how to develop projection methods for analytic years
  • Respond to the doodle poll to plan the next date/time for the next meeting by COB February 21

Meeting 4: March 1, 2024

Agenda with Notes
  • Discuss any comments and finalize the draft of the final 2022 projections methods
    • Review methods and EPA's comments
      • Discussed with EPA clarifications on the progress of sector projections/data and consensus on methods
  • Discuss plans for how to approach developing the projection methods for analytic years.
    • Discussed with EPA for the feasibility of incorporating new projection methods for analytic years (readily available national data would allow feasibility)
    • EPA suggests the taskforce comes to a consensus by June
    • Taskforce should keep in communication with residential wood workgroups
    • Taskforce will communicate with MARMA to reference their SCC crosswalk

Action Items

  • Data Preview Call [March 27] - EPA will go over the tools for reviewing data and method for submitting comments. Contact Mary Uhl to be invited to this meeting
  • Contact the co-leads with comments or suggestions on methodologies for the projections
  • The next meeting will either be at the end of March or the beginning of April depending on the lead time needed to get materials ready
    • Will be looking at the SCC level data

Meeting 5: April 29, 2024

Agenda with Notes

  • Discuss the analytic year projection comparison workbook and methodologies used/recommended by the following:
    • EPA
    • MARAMA
    • NCDEQ
  • The comparison was done on an SCC level basis and categories of interest were as follows (an updated version will be added to the 'Table of Documents' when available):
    • Industrial Surface Coating,
    • Petroleum Storage and Transport,
    • Residential Wood Combustion (added importance due to the PM2.5 NAAQS),
    • Stationary Fuel Combustion for Industrial and Commercial

Action Items

  • Continue discussions concerning data sources.
  • Find possible methods to compile the projections per SCCs into aggregate categories.
  • Once the most up to date analytic year projection comparison has been uploaded, task members should review the methods/sources for further discussion.
  • The next meeting will be scheduled within the next month.

Table of Documents

File Name Date File Attachment
Summary of Proposed Emissions Projection Methods by Source Category22 Nov 2023Download File
Sector SCC Summaries22 Nov 2023Download File
Initial 2022 NP Proposed Projections12 Dec 2023Download File
DRAFT of Final 2020-2022 Nonpoint Projection Methods07 Feb 2024Download File
Final 2020-2022 Nonpoint Projection Methods14 Mar 2024Download File
Analytic Year Projection Methods ComparisonTBDDownload File