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Oil and Gas Projections Task Force

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2022 Emissions Modeling Platform Wiki Main Page

Projections page

Oil and Gas Projections Task Force

Co-leads: Jeff Vukovich, Tom Richardson

Resources

Meetings

Oil and Gas Projections Task Force Meeting 6/6/2024

Note: The Oil and Gas Projections Task Force is a small group focused on developing default and alternative projections approaches. The Task Force reports its findings to the larger National Oil and Gas Emissions Committee (NOGEC) during the monthly NOGEC calls.

  • Review the default approach used for the 2016v3 EMP.
    • Workbook (Excel spreadsheet) for nonpoint production SCCs and point source SCCs (primarily in the transmission segment)
    • Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) Reference Case and other cases/scenarios

  • Nonpoint exploration emissions
    • Reviewed historic time series, focusing on EIA data
    • Activity data (focusing on total well spuds and total feet drilled) for 2014 through 2022
    • 2023 activity data will be available later this year and could be used in the 2022v2 EMP
    • Action item: Please provide feedback to Jeff Vukovich on the preferred default exploration time series (e.g., 5 years: from 2018-2022 inclusive, 6 years: from 2017-2022 inclusive, or other alternative) by June 30, 2024

  • Control data for future years (analytic years)
    • The Oil and Gas Methane Rule finalized on March 8, 2024: New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) Subpart OOOOb and Emission Guidelines (EG) Subpart OOOOc
    • The requirements associated with rules affecting engines (NSPS Subparts IIII and JJJJ; NESHAP Subpart ZZZZ) have already been incorporated into the EMP
    • Projections Outreach Call on June 18, 2024, will request additional information on new control requirements (affecting emissions from point and nonpoint sources), facility closures, fuel switches, and state rules affecting emissions from the sector.
    • If a state is not able to provide information in sufficient detail for use in Version 1 of the 2022 EMP, an optional narrative tab will allow states to share information on state requirements with the goal of incorporating those controls into Version 2 of the 2022 EMP.

  • Planning for future Task Force meetings:
    • The next meeting will discuss projection factors based on AEO + 2016EMP default approach
    • EIA historical data at state level will be from 2022 to 2023 to gauge one-year year change (2022-2023) + AEO projection to go from 2023 to FY

EIA Historical data:

NOGEC Meeting 5/9/2024

  • Colorado's Aerial Flyover & Intensity Verification Programs - Ben Hmiel (CDPHE/APCD)
    • Introduction to the ONGAEIR reporting system
    • Approaches used to increase accuracy in GHG reporting
    • Summary of past and present methane surveys
    • Charting a path forward toward reconciling state-level emissions
    • A "Find and Fix" approach using results from the survey program
    • Takeaway note: Inventories are always flawed but are always useful

  • 2022 Emissions Modeling Platform update – Jeff Vukovich (EPA)
    • EPA is accepting updates to 2022 base year emissions and to EPA tool inputs through May 17, 2024
    • Oil and gas emissions may be viewed using the EPA's 2022v1 EMP Data Retrieval Tool
    • The EPA Oil and Gas Emissions Estimation Tool, approaches used to estimate emissions from other sources (abandoned wells, blowdowns, pigging), memoranda, and other supporting information may be accessed using EPA's FTP site
      • Activity data
      • Emissions summaries
      • Monthly profiles by county-SCC
      • Speciation data
      • SMOKE-ready emissions files
    • Oil and Gas Projections Task Force (separate from the National Oil and Gas Emissions Committee (NOGEC)) will begin meeting later this month
      • If interested, please email Jeff Vukovich
      • Will refine default approaches for projecting 2022 base year oil and gas emissions to future years (analytic years)
      • Will discuss alternative approaches and how states can document their alternative approaches
      • Will continue reporting progress during the monthly NOGEC calls

  • State feedback on the 2022 base year oil and gas emissions generated from the EPA Tool - Michael Ege (TCEQ)
    • Some states have replaced the default approach used in the tool with a state-specific approach
      • Texas - different approach used to estimate emissions from engines driving compressors in natural gas gathering service
      • Texas - updates to the oil gas tool for crude oil loading operations, liquids unloading/blowdowns, and well completions
    • Other states have supplied alternative base year emissions

  • Information & Action Items – Michael Ege (TCEQ)

NOGEC Meeting 4/11/2024

Summary of Topics Discussed

  • 2022 EPA Oil and Gas tool updates – Regi Oommen (ERG) and Jeff Vukovich (EPA)
    • Discussion of the 2022 version of the tool that is being used for the 2022 Modeling Platform emissions
    • Tool will be released this week, and will be available to download
    • The tool uses 2022 activity data
    • EPA is asking for state feedback on updated default storage tank capture efficiencies incorporated into the tool
    • Additional Notes:
      • NOx and VOC emissions decreased by 11.2% and 8.8% compared to 2021
      • Decreases in emissions from emissions drilling and well completions mirrored changes in activity
      • Factors obtained from Subpart W reporting resulted in changes to emissions from all states

  • Additional sources in the oil and gas sector whose emissions are estimated outside of the EPA tool - Regi Oommen (ERG) and Jeff Vukovich (EPA)
    • Abandoned wells - approach developed in 2020 and updated for 2022
      • Approximately 3.9 million abandoned wells in the U.S.
      • Primary data sources for emissions estimates: Enverus (apprx. 2.8 million abandoned wells identified with location by county)
      • Historical USGS and state databases identify another apprx. 1.1 million abandoned wells
    • Blowdowns
    • Pigging emissions
    • Note that emissions from these sources will be included for evaluation in the 2022 EMP Data Retrieval Tool to help states review these emissions

  • Information & Action Items – Michael Ege (TCEQ)
    • Summary of latest content added to the Oil & Gas Emissions Information Repository, available at: http://vibe.cira.colostate.edu/ogec/home.htm
    • Request for state presentations on the impacts of the recently finalized Oil & Gas Methane Rule on state emissions and/or state work. Contact Jeff Vukovich or Michael Ege

NOGEC Meeting 3/14/2024

Summary of Topics Discussed

  • EDF’s study on Low-Producing Oil and Gas Wells – Jon Goldstein and Mark Omara (EDF)
    • Low-producing wells (less than 15 barrels of oil equivalent per day) account for 6% of the nation’s oil and gas production.
    • However, they are responsible for about half of the methane emitted from all wells sites.
    • These wells emit methane at a rate 6-12 times the national average.
    • Approximately 10% of the gas leaks directly to the atmosphere.
    • Study published in Nature Communications, and is available at: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-29709-3

  • Reviewing the 2022 point source oil and gas emissions – Jeff Vukovich (EPA)
    • Summary of the draft 2022 inventory for oil and gas point sources.
    • Comparison of the 2022 point inventory with oil and gas point sources in the 2020 NEI.
    • Discussion of plans for future year (analytic year) projections and possible approaches for oil and gas point sources.
    • Discussion of the April 2024 review period.
    • Update on oil and gas sector work for the 2022 EMP.

  • Information & Action Items – Michael Ege (TCEQ)

NOGEC Meeting 2/8/2024

Summary of Topics Discussed

NOGEC Meeting 1/11/2024

Summary of Topics Discussed

  • Obtaining 2022 oil and gas activity data – Regi Oommen
  • Update on Modeling Platform work – Jeff Vukovich (EPA)
  • Information & Action Items – Michael Ege (TCEQ)

NOGEC Meeting 12/19/2023

Meeting Agenda
Meeting Recording

Summary of Topics Discussed