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Marine, Aircraft, and Rail (MAR)

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2022 Emissions Modeling Platform Wiki Main Page

Projections page

MAR Task Force/National Group

Co-leads: Mark Janssen and Janice Godfrey

Resources

Meetings

Kickoff Meeting 11/29/2023

Agenda (meeting notes added)

  • Introductions
    • Janice, Debbie, Cody (TX), Dale (CO), Kira (?), Nikole (NC), Andrew (NC), Mark J (Ladco), Alison, Gil G (GA), Shantha (TX)
  • Request for new co-lead. Debbie is leaving MARAMA. – No volunteers ☹
  • Discussion of base year. Looking for consensus.
  • CMV
    • EPA creating 2022 specific inventory
    • Refined SCCs that capture ship type (from 12 to 80+) started in 2021, not 2020.
    • Taskforce members may be able to join MARAMA CMV to see results for 2021
      • Nikole asked to be invited to MARAMA CMV. Debbie sent invite.
  • Airports / Aviation
    • Adjusting 2020 to 2022
    • Analyzing by running AEDT the top 50 or so airports to get a feel for COVID effects – too expensive to run AEDT for all airports, but some airports may already run it, so need to check on who might be able to submit to EPA (ATL, Debbie to check with her contacts in FL).
    • TAF data will be analyzed as well
    • For smaller airports may not have TAF data
    • May be able to look at AEO for Jet Fuel usage
    • Hartsfield provided 2022 emissions
    • Texas will be developing a 2023 inventory for Texas, concentrating on larger commercial and receiver airports. Projections 2011-2050.
    • CO mentioned possibly getting impact of pandemic looking at 2017 to 2022? Skipping over 2020.
  • Rail
    • Adjusting 2020 to 2022
    • Analyzing fuel use for 2022 for projection factors
    • Looking at other readily available data to improve fleet mixes
      • What is the technology mix?
      • Fleet mix, sometimes only getting fleet mix at the national level
      • MOU with the rail operators?
    • Researching any new electrification – CT has submitted electric rail info to EPA
    • Mark mentioned that Larger Line Haul rail was not impacted as much during covid, while commuter rail still shows 40% lower ridership due to folks still working remote, especially on Mon & Fridays.
    • TX mentioned that their Rail Operators gave info to EPA but TX ran into road blocks while trying to get this data from EPA. Union Pacific and BFS gave TX data in the past.
    • Mark mentioned it can take up to 6 months to get data.
    • GA mentioned for switchers to take into account mother slugs vs. old switchers. Mark J mentioned slug = ½ as it still burns fuel.
  • V1 calendar year 2022 needs base data by December 2023/January 2024. Projection years by June 2024.
  • V2 one year later for base year, and projection years by June 2025.
  • Next meeting will discuss analytic years. Homework: Good idea to review TSDs for what has been done in the past (in 2019 we projected from 2017). Alison mentioned 2016v3 as another option to review
      • Next meeting January 25th at 3 EST and then perhaps early March (Wed 3 EST?), 4th Wed of the month?
  • Priority: All of the data for the base year needs to be complete by mid March

Meeting #2 1/25/2024

Agenda (meeting notes added)

Mark Janssen volunteered to co-lead.

  • CMV
    • EPA creating 2022 specific inventory
      • Not confident emissions data will be available by April
    • OTAQ may be possibly able to advise on analytic years. Other ideas?

  • Airports / Aviation
    • Adjusting 2020 to 2022
      • TAF data(projections as well)
      • AEO (possible comparison for analytic years. No AEO for 2024)
      • Look at SEDs data for comparison
    • ERG has started the runs
      • Analyzing by running AEDT the top 50 or so airports to get a feel for COVID effects.
    • Hartsfield provided 2022 emissions
    • TAF projections for analytic years? Other ideas?

  • Rail
    • Adjusting 2020 to 2022
      • Analyzing fuel use for 2022 for projection factors
      • Still waiting on fleet mix
    • Once we get fleet mix, this should be a quick turnaround
    • We will double check cleaner slugs are used in Georgia
    • Amtrack NC fuel/mile? EPA has for 2020 by county.
      • NC interested in counties Amtrack crosses
      • Getting local fuel information is a good use of resources
      • Yard improvement is important since changes are always occurring
    • Analytic years used to come from ERTAC projections. Projections may not be accurate for Tier3, not as many as projected. 2008 Guidance – have we realized the reductions we expected. Revisit at least for Class I. OTAQ may have additional insights.

V1 calendar year 2022 needs base data by December 2023/January 2024. Projection years by June 2024.

V2 one year later for base year, and projection years by June 2025.

2023 NEI Request: EPA seeking speciation factors for dioxins and furans for 2023 NEI for MAR sectors. Any suggestions send to Janice.

Review: Good idea to review TSDs for what has been done in the past (in 2019 we projected from 2017). Alison mentioned 2016v3 as another option to review.

Next meeting: February 29th, 3 PM

Priority: All of the data for the base year needs to be complete by mid-March

Meeting #3 2/29/2024

  • CMV
    • Alison gave an in-depth presentation on 2021 CMV at this month’s MARAMA CMV call. Janice presented a subset of those slides, showing emissions and plots showing the new SCCs differentiated by ship type.
    • EPA creating 2022 specific inventory.
      • Making progress, but emissions data may not be available by April 1.
      • We have asked OTAQ to consider whether they can advise on making adjustments for analytic years. Other ideas?

  • Airports / Aviation
    • Adjusting 2020 to 2022
      • New 2023 TAF data are available (use for projections as well)
      • AEO (possible comparison for analytic years, but no AEO for 2024)
      • Look at SEDS data for comparison.
    • ERG has completed running AEDT the top 50 or so airports and we will have 2022 emissions soon and will share once available.
      • We will analyze to get a feel for COVID effects, in order to apply changes to other years.
    • Hartsfield provided 2022 emissions.
    • TAF projections for analytic years? Other ideas?

  • Rail
    • Adjusting 2020 to 2022
      • Analyzing fuel use for 2022 for projection factors
    • Still waiting on fleet mix ☹
      • Once we get fleet mix, this should be a quick turnaround.
    • We will double check that cleaner slugs are used in Georgia.
    • Analytic years used to come from ERTAC projections. Projections may not be accurate for Tier3, as not as many engines in use as previously projected.
      • Revisit at least for Class I.
      • OTAQ may have additional insights.
      • Keep in mind that emission rates used for projections, were overstating the turnover in the past. Perhaps industry experts can provide insights about turnover rates in analytic years.

Meeting #4 3/29/2024

  • CMV
    • EPA creating 2022-specific inventory.
    • Received draft C3 and C1C2 emissions 3/27-28
    • Will upload these into the 2022 data review tool by April 5
    • Note that there are some data issues in May and June that will probably require some substitutions from 2021 or other days in 2022
    • Should receive intermediate data from which gridded files can be generated by April 8
    • Should be able to review gridded data by next meeting
    • Will start by creating 12km gridded, but 4km versions can be generated for specific grids - 4km files for entire US may be too large
    • We have asked OTAQ to consider whether they can advise on making adjustments for analytic years. Other ideas?

  • Airports / Aviation
    • Estimated emission for 50 large airports and projected remaining airports based on data in January 2024 TAF
    • Data provided for Atlanta Hartsfield - first with AEDT 3e and then with AEDT 3f
    • Data are available for April 1 review
    • For projections, plan to use new TAF - will share derived factors once they are available (probably June)
    • Can look at SEDS data for comparison

  • Rail
    • Adjusting 2020 to 2022
      • Analyzing fuel use for 2022 for projection factors
    • Still waiting on fleet mix, although it should be available very soon
      • Once we get fleet mix, this should be a quick turnaround.
    • We will double check that cleaner slugs are used in Georgia.
    • Analytic years used to come from ERTAC projections. Projections may not be accurate for 2022platform, as not as many cleaner engines in use as previously projected.
      • Revisit at least for Class I.
      • OTAQ may have additional insights.
      • Keep in mind that emission rates used for projections, were overstating the turnover in the past. Perhaps industry experts can provide insights about turnover rates in analytic years.

Meeting #5 4/25/2024

ftp site: https://gaftp.epa.gov/Air/emismod/2022/v1/draft/

Review gridded draft data on ftp site

  • CMV
    • C1C2 available for review
    • Still waiting for final C3, as well as documentation
      • May and June gap filling still occurring
    • Asked OTAQ to consider whether they can advise on making adjustments for analytic years. Other ideas?
      • TX will be doing some projections for their 2023 inventory

  • Airports / Aviation
    • Data are available for review
    • For projections, plan to use new TAF - will share derived factors once they are available (probably June)
      • SEDS data for comparison
      • HJAIA providing projections for the platform years

  • Rail
    • Still waiting on final rail and documentation
    • We will post flat file on ftp site when available
      • Mark Janssen to think about projections
      • It would also be good to see what TX is doing

Meeting #6 5/23/2024

  • CMV
    • Alison showed plots for discussion for work on gap filling missing data.

  • Airports/Aviation
    • TAF for projections

  • Rail
    • Mark Janssen doubts we will get technology improvements. In the Midwest, rail is becoming bigger slice of the inventory pie, making projections all the more important.
    • Freight Analysis Framework may be a possibility. OTAQ and others can take a look.

  • Next meeting: MayJune 23,27, 3 PM EST