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WAQS 2011b Platform Future Year Emissions

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Introduction

The WAQS 2011b modeling platform includes a future projection year for estimating the impacts of future emissions on air quality in the Intermountain West. Emissions projections are only available for the anthropogenic emissions sectors; the natural emissions sectors, including fires, are held constant at the 2011 levels.

Although the projection year for the WAQS 2011b modeling platform is identified as 2025, some of the inventory sectors are projected to other years. This page summarizes the years and data providers of the WAQS 2011b platform future emissions.

2011b Inventory Data

Descriptions of the processing sector abbreviations are available on the WAQS 2011b Base Year Emissions wiki.

3SAQS Phase II Oil and Gas Emissions

WAQS Processing Sectors: arog, ptog

Year(s): 2015, 2020

Data Provider: Ramboll Environ

The majority of the oil and gas basins covered by the 3SAQS Phase II inventory are projected from the year 2011 to 2020. The Williston and Great Plains Basin inventories are projected from 2011 to 2015. These data were developed for the 3SAQS and WAQS by Ramboll Environ.

In December 2015, the Denver-Julesburg Basin projection year inventory was adjusted to reflect recent updates to the activity and control data available from CDPHE. These adjustments lead a net decrease in the 2020 emissions for sources in this D-J Basin, with particularly large decreases in VOC emissions relative to the 3SAQS Phase II projections. Additional details on the D-J Basin adjustments will be available soon.

Other U.S. Anthropogenic Emissions

WAQS Processing Sectors: c1c2rail, c3marine, fdust, nonpt, ft, lv, rwc, nonroad, onroad, usarog, usptog, ptcem, ptncem, ptseca

Year(s): 2025

Data Provider: US EPA

The rest of the anthropogenic emissions for the WAQS 2011b platform are projected to the year 2025, including oil and gas emissions for the basins outside of the 3SAQS Phase II inventory. These data were taken directly from the EPA 2011v2 modeling platform.

Canada Anthropogenic Emissions

WAQS Processing Sectors: canar, canmb, nuspt

Year(s): 2010

Data Provider: US EPA/Environment Canada

The Canadian inventories are held constant at 2010 levels.

Mexico Anthropogenic Emissions

WAQS Processing Sectors: mexar, mexmb, nuspt

Year(s): 2025

Data Provider: US EPA/SEMARNAT/ERG, Inc.

The Mexico inventories are projected from 2008 to 2025 and are based on the latest Mexico NEI developed by SEMARNAT and revised by ERG, Inc.

Natural Emissions

WAQS Processing Sectors: biogenic, wbd, seasalt, lightning, fires

Year(s): 2011

Data Provider: Ramboll Environ and Air Sciences (Fires)

The natural emissions are estimated with 2011 meteorology and 2010 or earlier landuse/landcover data. These emissions are held constant at 2011 levels.

Ancillary Data

Most of the ancillary emissions data (gridding, temporal, chemical speciation) for the WAQS 2011b modeling came from the 2011a modeling platform.

Emissions Summaries

As described above in the 2011b Inventory Data section, all of the anthropogenic emissions sources, with the exception of the 3SAQS Phase II Oil and Gas (O&G) inventories, are from the U.S. EPA NEI 2011v6.2. The differences between the base and future year emissions for all sectors other than 3SAQS O&G sources seen in the plots below are due to the projections (growth + controls) used by the U.S. EPA in developing the NEI2011v6.2 inventories. The differences attributed to oil and gas sources in the basins covered by the 3SAQS Phase II inventories are documented in the 3SAQS Oil and Gas Modeling Wiki.

Stacked Bar Charts

Stacked bar charts comparing the 2011 and 2025 emissions for each of the WRAP states showing the contribution of each emissions sector to the annual emissions in each state.

Tile Plots

Tile plots display the monthly total emissions (tons/month) in each model grid cell. These plots show the surface emissions for all of the anthropogenic sectors merged together; they do not include any of the natural sources (biogenic, fires, windblown dust, lightning, sea salt), as these sources are the same in the base and future year simulations. These plots do not reflect any of the emissions from elevated sources, they are surface emissions only.

Carbon Monoxide (CO) Most of the change in CO emissions is driven by reductions in onroad mobile in 2025 relative to the base, as seen in this plot showing the difference between January monthly total CO emissions from onroad mobile sources. O&G sources drive regional CO increases in Texas, NW New Mexico, and NE Utah.

MonthBase11bBase25a_11b2025-2011
January
April
July
October
Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) The NOx emissions changes are driven by similar sources as carbon monoxide. Diffuse and large onroad mobile reductions in 2025 relative to the base can be seen in a plot of January total onroad mobile source NOx changes between 2025 and 2011. O&G sources also drive regional NOX increases in Texas, NW New Mexico, and NE Utah.

MonthBase11bBase25a_11b2025-2011
January
April
July
October
Total Organic Gases (TOG) Increases in future year TOG emissions are driven by oil and gas sources, particularly non-point O&G sources from the U.S. EPA NEI in Texas, Oklahoma, West Virgina, and western Pennsylvania. Increases in future year TOG emissions are also seen in the surveyed 3SAQS O&G inventory in northeast Colorado and Wyoming. Decreases in future year TOG emissions are primarily the result of reductions in TOG from onroad and nonroad mobile, although decreases in non-point O&G in southern Kansas contrasts sharply with increasing emissions in the same sector just across the border in Oklahoma.

MonthBase11bBase25a_11b2025-2011
January
April
July
October
Ammonia (NH3) Projected increases in livestock NH3 emissions in the midwest and southeast drive the regional increases in NH3. Emissions decreases in the West, Northeast, and Florida are primarily from reductions in onroad mobile NH3.

MonthBase11bBase25a_11b2025-2011
January
April
July
October
Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) TheElevated point sectors like EGU and non-EGU point are the largest ssources of SO2 emissions. As these tile plots show low level emissions only, they don't reflect the future year emission changes due to the elevated source sectors. The reductions in low-level SO2 are due primarily to the nonpoint sector. Reductions in fuel oil emissions in the Northeast and in stationary source coal combustion in the Southeast are reflected in these tile plots.

MonthBase11bBase25a_11b2025-2011
January
April
July
October
Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Changes in PM emissions in the west are driven by increases in the fugitive dust sector. While all sources of fugitive dust are projected to increase, unpaved road dust sources are projected to experience the largest increase across much of the west, leading to the PM2.5 emissions increases seen in New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, and Wyoming. The fugitive dust increases are offset by decreases in the onroad mobile sector, as seen in the widespread PM2.5 emissions reductions in Colorado, California, and most of the East U.S.

MonthBase11bBase25a_11b2025-2011
January
April
July
October