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SMOKE 2011a Emissions

Introduction

The 3SAQS used the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) processing system version 3.5.1 to prepare emissions inputs for photochemical grid models (PGMs). The 3SAQS 2011 emissions modeling platform consists of data and software to estimate air emissions fluxes that best represent the conditions in the 3SAQS modeling domain during 2011. The base 2011 modeling period is annual, and included a model spin-up period from December 16 to December 31, 2011. The modeling domain includes a 36 km continental US (CONUS) domain with a 12 km nest over the western U.S. and a 4-km nest the covers the states of Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming.

The following sectors were used to represent air pollutant emissions for the 3SAQS:

  • Aircraft/locomotive/marine (ALM)
  • Off-road mobile (Nonroad)
  • On-road mobile (Onroad)
  • Non-point/Area (Nonpoint)
  • Fugitive Dust
  • Fertilizer
  • Livestock
  • Residential Wood Combustion (RWC)
  • Area oil and gas (Area O&G)
  • Point oil and gas (Point O&G)
  • Continuous Emission Monitor (CEM) point (EGU Point)
  • Non-CEM point (NonEGU Point)
  • Offshore shipping (Offshore)
  • Fires (Fire)
  • Canada and Mexico sources (Non-US)
  • MEGAN biogenics (Biogenic)
  • Windblown dust (WBD)
  • Sea salt
  • Lightning

Details of the sources and nature of these emissions data are provided in the 3SAQS 2011 Modeling Protocol.


2011 Oil and Gas Emission Inventories and Projection Factors

Basin201120202011 Description2020 Description
Big HornxlsxlsFor 2011, area source emissions were directly provided by Wyoming Department of Environmental Quality (WYDEQ) for all Wyoming counties. Emissions outside Wyoming counties are excluded from the inventory due to lack of information on activity in Montana counties for this basin. The permitted source emissions were obtained from WYDEQ for the calendar year 20112011.
2011 base year emissions were projected to 2020 based on estimated changes in activity as well as control due to regulations for all counties. Activity projections were made based on statistical analysis of historical activity data for calendar year 2020. Each source category was assigned the projection estimate for the activity category to which it was most closely associated. For example, drill rig activity would be most closely associated and therefore assigned the activity projection of new spuds. Emission projections also include the effects of regulations which require controls beyond those in place in the 2011 base year. The controls were applied to only drilling and workover engines emissions as consistent with other basins.
Denver-Julesbergxlsxls2008 WestJump survey-based emissions were projected to 2011 based on estimated changes in activity as well as control due to regulations. Activity data were obtained from the IHS database for the calendar year 2011. Each source category was assigned the projection estimate for the activity category to which it was most closely associated. For example, drill rig activity would be most closely associated and therefore assigned the activity projection of new spuds. The permitted APEN sources emissions were directly obtained from the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) for the calendar year 2011. Per agreement with the Three-State Air Quality Modeling Study (3SAQS) technical committee, for the Phase I oil and gas emission inventories, emission controls were applied to survey-based sources, but not for emissions provided by state agencies.
2011 base year emissions were projected to 2020 based on estimated changes in activity as well as control due to regulations for all counties. Activity projections were made based on statistical analysis of historical activity data for the calendar year 2020. Each source category was assigned the projection estimate for the activity category to which it was most closely associated. For example, drill rig activity would be most closely associated and therefore assigned the activity projection of new spuds. Emission projections also include the effects of regulations which require controls beyond those in place in the 2011 base year. Per agreement with the Three-State Air Quality Modeling Study (3SAQS) technical committee, for the Phase I oil and gas emission inventories, emission controls were applied to survey-based sources, but not for emissions provided by state agencies.
North San Juanxlsxls2008 WestJump survey-based emissions were projected to 2011 based on estimated changes in activity as well as control due to regulations. Activity data were obtained from the IHS database for the calendar year 2011. Each source category was assigned the projection estimate for the activity category to which it was most closely associated. For example, drill rig activity would be most closely associated and therefore assigned the activity projection of new spuds. The permitted APEN sources emissions were directly obtained from the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) for the calendar year 2011. Per agreement with the Three-State Air Quality Modeling Study (3SAQS) technical committee, for the Phase I oil and gas emission inventories, emission controls were applied to survey-based sources, but not for emissions provided by state agencies.
2011 base year emissions were projected to 2020 based on estimated changes in activity as well as control due to regulations for all counties. Activity projections were made based on statistical analysis of historical activity data for the calendar year 2020. Each source category was assigned the projection estimate for the activity category to which it was most closely associated. For example, drill rig activity would be most closely associated and therefore assigned the activity projection of new spuds. Emission projections also include the effects of regulations which require controls beyond those in place in the 2011 base year. Per agreement with the Three-State Air Quality Modeling Study (3SAQS) technical committee, for the Phase I oil and gas emission inventories, emission controls were applied to survey-based sources, but not for emissions provided by state agencies.
ParadoxxlsxlsFor this basin, only permitted emissions were captured as area source emissions estimation was beyond the scope of work for this study. The permitted source emissions were obtained from the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE), the Uintah Department of Environmental Quality (UTDEQ) and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for the calendar year 2011.
Activity projections were made based on statistical analysis of historical activity data for calendar year 2020. Each permitted source was assigned the projection estimate for the activity category to which it was most closely associated. Per agreement with the Three-State Air Quality Modeling Study (3SAQS) technical committee, for the Phase I 3SAQS oil and gas emission inventories, emission controls were not applied to emissions provided by state agencies.
Piceancexlsxls2008 WestJump survey-based emissions were projected to 2011 based on estimated changes in activity as well as control due to regulations. Activity data were obtained from the IHS database for the calendar year 2011. Each source category was assigned the projection estimate for the activity category to which it was most closely associated. For example, drill rig activity would be most closely associated and therefore assigned the activity projection of new spuds. The permitted APEN sources emissions were directly obtained from the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) for the calendar year 2011. Per agreement with the Three-State Air Quality Modeling Study (3SAQS) technical committee, for the Phase I oil and gas emission inventories, emission controls were applied to survey-based sources, but not for emissions provided by state agencies.
2011 base year emissions were projected to 2020 based on estimated changes in activity as well as control due to regulations for all counties. Activity projections were made based on statistical analysis of historical activity data for the calendar year 2020. Each source category was assigned the projection estimate for the activity category to which it was most closely associated. For example, drill rig activity would be most closely associated and therefore assigned the activity projection of new spuds. Emission projections also include the effects of regulations which require controls beyond those in place in the 2011 base year. Per agreement with the Three-State Air Quality Modeling Study (3SAQS) technical committee, for the Phase I oil and gas emission inventories, emission controls were applied to survey-based sources, but not for emissions provided by state agencies.
Powder RiverxlsxlsFor 2011, area source emissions were directly provided by the Wyoming Department of Environmental Quality (WYDEQ) for all Wyoming counties. Area source emissions outside Wyoming counties for 2011 were projected from 2008 WestJump EI based on estimated changes in activity as well as control due to regulations. Activity data were obtained from the IHS database for the calendar year 2011. The permitted source emissions were obtained from WYDEQ and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Montana permitted source emissions were projected from 2008 WestJump EI based on estimated change in activity.
2011 base year emissions were projected to 2020 based on estimated changes in activity as well as control due to regulations for all counties. Activity projections were made based on statistical analysis of historical activity data for the calendar year 2020. Each source category was assigned the projection estimate for the activity category to which it was most closely associated. For example, drill rig activity would be most closely associated and therefore assigned the activity projection of new spuds. Emission projections also include the effects of regulations which require controls beyond those in place in the 2011 base year. The controls were applied to only drilling and workover engines emissions as consistent with other basins.
RatonxlsxlsFor this basin, only permitted emissions were captured as area source emissions estimation was beyond the scope of work for this study. The permitted APEN sources emissions were directly obtained from the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) for the calendar year 2011. As per the database provided by the New Mexico Environmental Department, there are no title V permitted sources on any New Mexico counties for this basin in 2011.
Activity projections were made based on statistical analysis of historical activity data for calendar year 2020. Each permitted source was assigned the projection estimate for the activity category to which it was most closely associated. Per agreement with the Three-State Air Quality Modeling Study (3SAQS) technical committee, for the Phase I oil and gas emission inventories, emission controls were not applied to emissions provided by state agencies.
Southwest WyomingxlsxlsFor 2011, area source emissions were directly provided by the Wyoming Department of Environmental Quality (WYDEQ) for all Wyoming counties. Area source emissions outside Wyoming counties for 2011 were projected from 2008 WestJump EI based on estimated changes in activity as well as control due to regulations. Activity data were obtained from the IHS database for the calendar year 2011. The permitted source emissions were obtained from WYDEQ for the calendar year 2011.
2011 base year emissions were projected to 2020 based on estimated changes in activity as well as control due to regulations for all counties. Activity projections were made based on statistical analysis of historical activity data for calendar year 2020. Each source category was assigned the projection estimate for the activity category to which it was most closely associated. For example, drill rig activity would be most closely associated and therefore assigned the activity projection of new spuds. Emission projections also include the effects of regulations which require controls beyond those in place in the 2011 base year. The controls were applied to only drilling and workover engines emissions as consistent with other basins.
South San Juanxlsxls2008 WestJump survey-based emissions were projected to 2011 based on estimated changes in activity as well as control due to regulations. Activity data were obtained from the IHS database for the calendar year 2011. Each source category was assigned the projection estimate for the activity category to which it was most closely associated. For example, drill rig activity would be most closely associated and therefore assigned the activity projection of new spuds. The title V permitted sources emissions were directly obtained from the New Mexico Environment Department and Part 71 sources emissions from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for the calendar year 2011. Per agreement with the Three-State Air Quality Modeling Study (3SAQS) technical committee, for the Phase I oil and gas emission inventories, emission controls were applied to survey-based sources, but not for emissions provided by state agencies.
2011 base year emissions were projected to 2020 based on estimated changes in activity as well as control due to regulations for all counties. Activity projections were made based on statistical analysis of historical activity data for the calendar year 2020. Each source category was assigned the projection estimate for the activity category to which it was most closely associated. For example, drill rig activity would be most closely associated and therefore assigned the activity projection of new spuds. Emission projections also include the effects of regulations which require controls beyond those in place in the 2011 base year. Per agreement with the Three-State Air Quality Modeling Study (3SAQS) technical committee, for the Phase I oil and gas emission inventories, emission controls were applied to survey-based sources, but not for emissions provided by state agencies.
Uintahxlsxls
Wind Riverxlsxls

Results

2011 version A results

2011 three-state total emissions, inventory sector totals, and comparisons to the other 3SAQS modeling platforms are presented here. A complete review of the 3SAQS 2011 emissions results, including comparisons to the 3SAQS 2008 emissions is available in the 3SAQS Emissions Modeling Report

On a state total basis Colorado has the highest 2011 emissions of CO, NOx, VOC, NH3, and methane (CH4) of the three states. Wyoming has the highest 2011 emissions of SO2 and PM species.

The following table includes plots that breakdown the 2011 3SAQS emissions for each inventory pollutant by sector and monthly total spatial plots on the 3SAQS 4-km modeling domain.

Pollutant
Carbon MonoxideJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Nitrogen OxidesJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Volatile Organic CompoundsJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
AmmoniaJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Sulfur DioxideJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Fine Particulate MatterJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
MethaneJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Emissions Maps

The high resolution maps presented here are designed to inform air quality model performance. The include the following layers:

  • Pie charts showing the magnitude (size of the pie) and distribution of the county-level emissions by inventory sector.
  • County boundaries with county names
  • Air quality monitors with the monitor station ID
  • Active oil and gas wells as of January 2015
  • Class I areas
  • Federal lands by managing agency

Colorado: NOx, VOC, NH3, SO2, PM2.5, POC

Utah: NOx, VOC, NH3, SO2, PM2.5, POC

Wyoming: NOx, VOC, NH3, SO2, PM2.5, POC

Comparisons to 2008

Sector summaries comparing 2011 and 2008 3SAQS emissions

Residential Wood Combustion Sources

The model performance evaluation of CAMx simulation Base11a reveals significant positive biases (over-estimates) of organic carbon (OC) fine particulate matter (PM2.5) at urban monitors across the 4-km domain, at sites in Colorado, and in Utah. Note that there are no urban CSN monitors in Wyoming. OC has both primary and secondary sources, which will both need to be investigated to determine the cause of the poor model performance.

Residential wood combustion sources (e.g. wood furnaces, fireplaces, and wood stoves) are the largest sources of primary OC in the proximity of the monitors with the worst model performance in 3SAQS simulation Base11a.

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